Afternoon Must-Read: Brian Buetler: WSJ Obamacare editorial supports ACA fixes, slams conservative critics

Brian Buetler: WSJ Obamacare editorial supports ACA fixes, slams conservative critics: “We know that GOP leaders are suddenly, tepidly, willing to allow…

…minor, bipartisan improvements to Obamacare to clear the House of Representatives. But for the party’s shift away from an obstinance-only strategy to evolve into something more substantial—something that really undermines the repeal fantasy—influential voices within the conservative tent are going to have to pressure hardliners…. The Wall Street Journal editors picked today to attack the GOP members who are furious about party leaders doing anything at all to facilitate implementation of the law:

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Afternoon Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Euphemistic At The IMF

Paul Krugman: Euphemistic At The IMF: “Ever since the financial crisis struck…

…we’ve suffered grievously from the tyranny of respectable opinion. As I’ve often argued, the problem with our inadequate and often perverse response to mass unemployment isn’t that we lack a workable economic framework; basic IS-LMish macroeconomics has, in fact, provided quite good guidance. The problem, instead, has been that following economic logic has been deemed unserious…. Respectable people grab on to academic papers that present dubious nonstandard results — expansionary austerity! A debt cliff at 90 percent!–while radicals like me are the ones citing Econ 101. In all of this, the IMF has played a somewhat strange role. It is, institutionally, the very model of respectability…. Yet it has a sophisticated, fairly Keynesian research department–and management that actually listens to that department (as opposed to, say, the European Commission, whose attitude seems to be: ”If I want your opinion I’ll tell you what it is.”)…

The result is a proliferation of euphemisms.

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Lunchtime Must-Read: Bryan Covert: Here’s Why We Know The Gender Wage Gap Really Does Exist

Bryan Covert: Here’s Why We Know The Gender Wage Gap Really Does Exist: “Here’s why we know there is still an unfair difference between what women and men make:

Women earn less when they get the same education. The first year out of college… women make less than men… even when factors such as schools, grades, majors, and others are taken into account…. Women earn less in virtually every job… category tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics…. Women earn less thanks to discrimination…. Not all of the gap is due to discrimination…. Francine Blau and Lawrence Kahn found that while experience, occupation, and industry explain much of the gap, there is still more than 40 percent of it that remains unexplained…. Women earn less when they balance children and careers…. Our country is also unique in making it difficult for both parents to remain in the workforce…. Paid leave and affordable, consistent child care help boost women’s wages. The choice to be a caretaker may not always be such a free choice….

Lunchtime Must-Read: Matthew Yglesias: The Short Guide to Piketty’s “Capital in the Twenty-First Century”

Matthew Yglesias: The short guide to Capital in the 21st Century: “Can you give me Piketty’s argument in four bullet points?

  • The ratio of wealth to income is rising in all developed countries.
  • Absent extraordinary interventions, we should expect that trend to continue.
  • If it continues, the future will look like the 19th century, where economic elites have predominantly inherited their wealth rather than working for it.
  • The best solution would be a globally coordinated effort to tax wealth….

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Lunchtime Must-Read: Danny Vinik: Glenn Hubbard’s Critique of Obama’s Stimulus Makes No Sense

Danny Vinik: Glenn Hubbard’s Critique of Obama’s Stimulus Makes No Sense: “Former Romney Adviser Blames Obama for Problems Republicans Created:

Hubbard criticizes the Obama administration for focusing too much on ‘shovel-ready’ projects while not implementing a sustained infrastructure program. In fact, that’s the exact sort of thing that the administration has been pushing for, and Hubbard’s fellow Republicans have been blocking…. [Hubbard] admits that ‘activist demand policies by the federal government may make sense’… [and] blames the Obama administration for problems with fiscal policy that Republicans created…. As Mike Grunwald lays out in his book The New New Deal, the White House wanted a larger stimulus…. Obama has repeatedly called for more infrastructure spending—often in the form of an infrastructure bank—in the past few years. Republicans have blocked those proposals. While the administration has not offered a comprehensive tax reform proposal, Republicans ran as fast as they could away from Dave Camp’s plan…

What Might the Republican Health-Care Reform Endgame Be?: Tuesday Focus/The Honest Broker for the Week of April 12, 2014

It is unclear whether Paul Ryan understands what he is doing or not. But if he does, he is laying it all out there–that the Republican health-care endgame is as follows:

  • If you are already sick, have the wrong genetic markers, or are poor, the plan is for you to beg at your church for money to pay your health care bills.

  • Health insurance is to be reserved only for those from the middle class who lack adverse genetic markers and who have no preexisting conditions.

  • Why? Because freedom!

I swing back and forth between thinking that Paul Ryan understands, thinking that he does not understand, and thinking that he just isn’t thinking about it but, instead, simply taking whatever step looks most solid without raising his eyes…

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Things to Read on the Evening of April 6, 2014

Must-Reads:

  1. Richard Mayhew: $2.32 per person per month: “That is the great ‘risk corridor’ and ‘death spiral’ potential of one major Exchange carrier.  Highmark is an insurer for Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia.  They did well on the Exchanges this year by picking up over 100,000 new members in Pennsylvania.  However their actuaries were off by a little bit…. ‘The state’s largest health insurer expects to lose $2.9 million on its exchange business in Pennsylvania from July 1, 2014, to June 30, 2015, according to a filing with the state Department of Insurance.’ The actuaries, flying blind, were able to get within a large cup of coffee.  The article states that the major source of error was an underestimation of how much ‘catch-up’ care that previously uninsured individuals were consuming in the first three months of the open enrollment and active policy period.  I think that this error will narrow as the last minute surge of healthier and younger people who either signed up last week or are in the process of signing up now through the blue box enrollment period enter the acturial calculations.  But even if the revised projection is perfect, and the age/health composition of the Highmark risk pool does not get younger/healthier, their base rates have to increase by the cost of a good cup of coffee. So how do we get death spiral stories out of that? We don’t.”

  2. Ezra Klein: How politics makes us stupid: “At one point in our interview Kahan does stare over the abyss…. He recalls a dissent written by Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia in a case about overcrowding in California prisons. Scalia dismissed the evidentiary findings of a lower court as motivated by policy preferences. ‘I find it really demoralizing…’ Kahan says. But Scalia’s comments were perfectly predictable given everything Kahan had found…”

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Evening Must-Read: Ezra Klein: How Politics Makes Us Stupid

Ezra Klein: How politics makes us stupid: “At one point in our interview…

…Kahan does stare over the abyss…. He recalls a dissent written by Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia in a case about overcrowding in California prisons. Scalia dismissed the evidentiary findings of a lower court as motivated by policy preferences. “I find it really demoralizing…” Kahan says. But Scalia’s comments were perfectly predictable given everything Kahan had found.

Scalia is… the kind of identity-protector who has publicly said he stopped subscribing to the Washington Post because he “just couldn’t handle it anymore,” and so he now cocoons himself in the more congenial pages of the Washington Times and the Wall Street Journal. Isn’t it the case, I asked Kahan, that everything he’s found would predict that Scalia would convince himself of whatever he needed to think to get to the answers he wanted?…

The threat is real. Washington is a bitter war between two well-funded, sharply-defined tribes that have their own machines for generating evidence and their own enforcers of orthodoxy. It’s a perfect storm for making smart people very stupid. The silver lining is that politics doesn’t just take place in Washington. The point of politics is policy. And most people don’t experience policy as a political argument. They experience it as a tax bill, or a health insurance card, or a deployment. And, ultimately, there’s no spin effective enough to persuade Americans to ignore a cratering economy, or skyrocketing health-care costs, or a failing war….

At least, that’s the hope. But that’s not true on issues, like climate change, where action is needed quickly to prevent a disaster that will happen slowly…. And it’s not true when American politics becomes so warped by gerrymandering, big money, and congressional dysfunction that voters can’t figure out who to blame for the state of the country. If American politics is going to improve, it will be better structures, not better arguments, that win the day.

Oligarchy and Monetary Policy: I Confess That I Do Not Understand: Monday Focus: April 7, 2014

Why do the top 0.01% think they want a depressed real economy and low inflation?

Back before World War I there were many very rich people with nominal assets: nominal bonds and real estate rented out for very long term at fixed nominal rents. As a result, they had to clear an immediate financial interest in hard money: low inflation. But after World War I, everybody realizes the risk of holding a heavily nominal-weighted portfolio in a fiat-money world subject to bouts of large inflation. Since 1920 the super-rich are almost as likely to be net nominal borrowers as net nominal debtors. And for anyone with a portfolio predominantly in real assets, the benefits of a high-pressure economy via higher profits and higher growth greatly outweigh any residual negative loading on higher inflation.

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Telling the Real History of Twentieth-Century East-Central Europe Through Black Screwball Comedy Cozy-Catastrophe Farcical Tragedy: Watching Wes Anderson’s “The Grand Budapest Hotel”: The Honest Broker for the Week of April 5, 2014

In Alfred Hitchcock’s (1938) The Lady Vanishes, the moment when the train is stopped in the countryside by armed fascists is the moment of revelation and clarity: all becomes clear, the adversaries reveal themselves, and the proper action heroics can begin.

In Wes Anderson’s (2014) The Grand Budapest Hotel, the first moment when the train is stopped in the countryside by armed authoritarians is one of suspense broken by comic-opera comedy. Just as the militia have determined that the young Zero Moustafa’s papers are not in order are going to pull him off of the train and take him away to an unknown fate, it turns out that their leader–Captain Albert Henckels-Bergersdorfer–is the same Little Albert to whom Zero’s patron M. Gustave was “very kind” when as a lonely little boy he stayed with his parents at the Grand Budapest Hotel in Nebelsbad, Zubrowka:

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