Must-read: Robert Axtell (2005): “The Complexity of Exchange”

Must-Read: Robert Axtell (2005): The Complexity of Exchange: “The computational complexity of two classes of market mechanisms is compared…

…First the Walrasian interpretation in which prices are centrally computed by an auctioneer. Recent results on the computational complexity are reviewed. The non-polynomial complexity of these algorithms makes Walrasian general equilibrium an implausible conception. Second, a decentralised picture of market processes is described, involving concurrent exchange within transient coalitions of agents. These processes feature price dispersion, yield allocations that are not in the core, modify the distribution of wealth, are always stable, but path-dependent. Replacing the Walrasian framing of markets requires substantial revision of conventional wisdom concerning markets.

Why don’t we have a better press corps yet?

I am beginning to think that the highly-estimable Kevin Drum needs his meds adjusted–not those affecting the rest of his body, those seem to going better than I had expected, but rather those affecting his neurotransmitter levels. For he fears to be descending into shrill unholy madness…

I feel his pain. I, too, had hoped that the coming of independent webloggers giving an unmediated public-sphere voice to those with substantive policy knowledge, plus the arrival of the Matt Yglesiases, Ezra Kleins, Nate Silvers, and so on who were interested in making the world a better place through policy-oriented explainer and data journalism would shame the press corps into behaving better.

But no: it’s still, overwhelmingly, horse-race coverage, and bad horse-race coverage, by those who have not even learned how to assess horseflesh, jockey skill, and the track:

Kevin Drum: Republican Tax Plans Will Be Great for the Ri—zzzzz: “Our good friends at the Tax Policy Center…

…have now analyzed—if that’s the right word—the tax plans of Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, and Marco Rubio. You can get all the details at their site, but if you just want the bottom line, you’ve come to the right place…. Unsurprisingly, they’re all about the same: middle income taxpayers would see their take-home pay go up 3 or 4 percent, while the rich would see it go up a whopping 10-17 percent. On the deficit side of things, everyone’s a budget buster. Rubio and Bush would pile up the red ink by $7 trillion or so (over ten years) while Trump would clock in at about $9 trillion. That compares to a current national debt of $14 trillion.

No one will care, of course, and no one will even bother questioning any of them about this. After all, we already know they’ll just declare that their tax cuts will supercharge the economy and pay for themselves. They can say it in their sleep. Then Trump will say something stupid, or Rubio will break his tooth on a Twix bar, and we’ll move on.

Unemployment rate truthers department

The very sharp Kevin Drum gets it largely right:

Kevin Drum: U6 Is Now the Last Refuge of Scoundrels: “Tuesday Donald Trump repeated his fatuous nonsense about the real unemployment rate being 42 percent….

…Then Neil Irwin of the New York Times inexplicably decided to opine that ‘he’s not entirely wrong’ because there are lots of different unemployment rates. Et tu, Neil?

Bill O’Reilly picked up on this theme today, with guest Lou Dobbs casually declaring that unemployment is ‘actually’ 10 percent… [and] Bernie Sanders… ‘Who denies that real unemployment today, including those who have given up looking for work and are working part-time is close to 10 percent?’… The 10 percent number is colorably legitimate… U6… unemployment plus folks who have been forced to work part time plus workers who are ‘marginally attached’….

But you can’t just toss this out as a slippery way of making the economy seem like it’s in horrible shape…. What’s normal in an expanding economy is about 8.9 percent…. The US economy is not a house afire…. I’m getting pretty tired of the endlessly deceitful attempts to make it seem as if we’re all but on the edge of economic Armageddon, and the last thing we need is for liberals to sign up for this flimflam too. It’s good politics, I guess, but it’s also a lie.

There are two arguments you can make that are not lies but are, rather, coherent arguments that are more likely than not true:

  1. That the US labor market performs abysmally at the low-wage end essentially all the time, as evidenced by U6.
  2. that the unemployment rate is a misleading indicator today because of the long-run disruptions to the labor market occasioned by what we must soon start calling “The Longer Depression”, as evidenced by the divergence in the behavior of unemployment and the employment-to-population ratio. And, no, this divergence is not primarily due to population aging.

Thus I think the Sanders conclusion–that the U.S. labor market is not performing all that well right now–is more likely than not to be correct. I object to the road he claims to reach it by. And I join Kevin Drum in doubly objecting to Trump and Irwin.

Must-read: Tim Duy: “Fed Yet to Fully Embrace a New Policy Path”

Must-Read: Tim Duy: Fed Yet to Fully Embrace a New Policy Path: “The Fed will take a pause on rate hikes. An indefinite pause…

…The sooner they admit this, the better off we will all be. Indeed, the sooner they admit this, the sooner financial markets will calm and the sooner they would be able to resume hiking rates. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen had two high profile opportunities this week to make such an admission. Yet she failed to do so….

By the end of 2015, the economy was near full-employment…. A combination of factors would work in tandem to slow activity… higher dollar, higher inflation, higher wages, and higher short term interest rates (tighter monetary policy). How much monetary policy tightening is consistent with the new equilibrium depends on the evolution of the other prices. A reasonable baseline at the end of last year was that 100bp of tightening would be consistent with achieving full-employment. That was the Fed’s starting point as well….

A key factor in keeping the US economy on the rails is acknowledging that tightening financial conditions via the dollar obviates the need to tightening conditions via monetary policy…. But the Fed has yet to fully embrace this story. And that leaves them sounding relatively hawkish…. Yellen & Co. don’t need to emphasize the direction of rates. They just can’t stop themselves. Worse yet, they feel compelled to describe the level of future rates via the Summary of Economic Projections. A level entirely inconsistent with signals from bond markets, no less. They don’t really know what the terminal fed funds rate will be, so why keep pretending they do? The ‘dot plot’ does nothing more than project an overly-hawkish policy stance that leaves market participants persistently fearful a policy error is in the making. It is time to end the ‘dot plot.’ 

Must-read: Ken Rogoff: “The Great Escape from China”

Must-Read: Just how large is the Chinese elite’s potential demand for political risk insurance in the form of dollar assets underneath the U.S.’s legal umbrella anyway? The extremely-sharp Ken Rogoff

Ken Rogoff: The Great Escape from China: “The prospect of a major devaluation of China’s renminbi…

…has been hanging over global markets like the Sword of Damocles. No other source of policy uncertainty has been as destabilizing…. It might seem odd that a country running a $600 billion trade surplus in 2015 should be worried about currency weakness. But… slowing economic growth and a gradual relaxation of restrictions on investing abroad, has unleashed a torrent of capital outflows…. Private citizens are now allowed to take up to $50,000 per year out of the country. If just one of every 20 Chinese citizens exercised this option, China’s foreign-exchange reserves would be wiped out. At the same time, China’s cash-rich companies have been employing all sorts of devices to get money out…. Now that Chinese firms have bought up so many US and European companies, money laundering can even be done in-house…

Must-reads: February 11, 2016


Must-read: Sheryl Sandberg: “From Facebook Q4 2015 Results–Earnings Call Transcript”

Must-Read: Via Ben Thompson: Sheryl Sandberg: From Facebook Q4 2015 Results–Earnings Call Transcript: “Our third priority is improving the relevance and effectiveness of our ads…

…We shipped a lot of new ad products this past year. These products help deliver personalized marketing at scale and drive business for our clients. Leading up to Black Friday Shop Direct, the UK’s second largest online retailer teased upcoming sales with a cinemagraph video to build awareness. They then retargeted people who saw the video with one day only deals. On Black Friday, they used our carousel and DPA ads to promote products people had shown interest in. They saw 20 times return on ad spend from this campaign, helping them achieve their biggest Black Friday and their most successful sales day ever…

Must-read: Amir Sufi: “Household Debt, Redistribution, and Monetary policy during the Economic Slump”

Must-Read: Amir Sufi: Household Debt, Redistribution, and Monetary policy during the Economic Slump: “High-income and low-income individuals respond very differently to monetary policy shocks…

…as do savers and borrowers. Monetary policy has been especially weak in advanced economies over the past seven years because the redistribution channels of monetary policy have been severely hampered. Recognising the importance of such channels can guide central bankers on what monetary policies are most likely to be effective: the same policy may have different effects on the real economy depending on the distribution of debt capacity across individuals.

Equitable Growth’s new interview series, and our fourth “History of Technology” report

This morning, Equitable Growth kicked off “Equitable Growth in Conversation”—our new series of interviews with economists, policymakers, and other social scientists to help us better understand whether and how economic inequality affects economic growth and stability in particular ways.

In today’s initial installment, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers talks with our own Executive Director and Chief Economist Heather Boushey. The two focus on secular stagnation—what it is, what problems it creates, and the issues for policymaking—as well as how inequality plays a role in the phenomenon.

Read their full conversation here.


In case you missed it, we also released the fourth report in our “History of Technology” series earlier this week: “Responsible innovation: The 1970s, today, and the implications for equitable growth.”

Throughout the report, Cyrus C.M. Mody—author of the report and professor at Maastricht University in the Netherlands—uses a handful of vignettes to explore how, in the area of science and technology policy, looking back to the 1970s is especially useful in thinking about strategies to promote innovation-led equitable growth.

Read the full report here.


To stay in the loop about future products from Equitable Growth, make sure to sign up for email updates below.

On Machiavelli’s “Letter to Vettori”: Hoisted from the Archives from 2003

Brad DeLong (2003): On Machiavelli’s “Letter to Vettori”: Or, The Value of the History of Economic Thought:

A surprisingly-large number of people have recently asked me why I am interested in the history of economic thought.

They make various points:

  • First, we don’t learn physics from Galileo’s Discourse on Two New Sciences. There are other, better, more complete, more accurate ways of presenting the material. In any real body of knowledge, the more up-to-date has to be preferred to the less because we know more than they did.
  • Second, there are the dangers of promoting dead and dry texts to the status of unquestionable authorities. Karl Marx saw misery in industrial England in the 1840s, jumped to the conclusion that market economies could never deliver persistent, sustained, significant improvements in real wages to the working class, jumped to the conclusion that markets had no place in any truly human mode of social organization, and–because his words became Holy Writ, the sacred gospel that was never to be questioned of a Millennarian World Religion–more than a billion people were doomed to even deeper poverty for more than a generation.
  • Third, there is the danger that one will read texts one has placed high on a pedestal and discover in them a secret message, a crucial form of knowledge that is desperately important and that only you have the wit to decode as it exists in hidden form beneath the surface of the ‘apparent meaning’ of the text.

These are indeed powerful drawbacks, ever-present dangers in any enterprise that contains any substantial intellectual history component. One may well find oneself attached to outmoded and partial knowledge, abandoning one’s right mind to become the acolyte of some strange old book-based cult repugnant to reason, or transformed into a madman convinced that only one and one’s own sect has been able to master the hermetic mysteries of the vitally-important true-but-hidden meaning of the text.

But there is an upside. What is the upside? Let me approach it in a roundabout fashion. Let me start by quoting a famous letter, a letter from circa-1600 Florentine politician Niccolo Machiavelli to his friend and hoped-for patron Francesco Vettori, describing what Machiavelli’s life is like in the internal political exile to which he was consigned after the fall of Florentine Republican government that he had served.

The letter is best known for its description of how Machiavelli spent his evenings, found in the second paragraph below:

I am living on my farm…. I get up in the morning with the sun and go into a grove I am having cut down, where I remain two hours to look over the work of the past day and kill some time with the cutters…. Leaving the grove, I go to a spring, and thence to my aviary. I have a book in my pocket, either Dante or Petrarch, or one of the lesser poets, such as Tibullus, Ovid, and the like. I read of their tender passions and their loves, remember mine, enjoy myself a while in that sort of dreaming. Then I move along the road to the inn; I speak with those who pass, ask news of their villages, learn various things, and note the various tastes and different fancies of men. In the course of these things comes the hour for dinner, where with my family I eat such food as this poor farm of mine and my tiny property allow. Having eaten, I go back to the inn…. I sink into vulgarity for the whole day, playing at cricca and at trich-trach…. So, involved in these trifles, I keep my brain from growing mouldy, and satisfy the malice of this fate of mine, being glad to have her drive me along this road, to see if she will be ashamed of it.

On the coming of evening, I return to my house and enter my study; and at the door I take off the day’s clothing, covered with mud and dust, and put on garments regal and courtly; and reclothed appropriately, I enter the ancient courts of ancient men, where, received by them with affection, I feed on that food which only is mine and which I was born for, where I am not ashamed to speak with them and to ask them the reason for their actions; and they in their kindness answer me; and for four hours of time I do not feel boredom, I forget every trouble, I do not dread poverty, I am not frightened by death; entirely I give myself over to them.

And because Dante says it does not produce knowledge when we hear but do not remember, I have noted everything in their conversation which has profited me, and have composed a little work On Princedoms, where I go as deeply as I can into considerations on this subject, debating what a princedom is, of what kinds they are, how they are gained, how they are kept, why they are lost…

In short, on the coming of evening Niccolo Machiavelli enters his personal library. There he talks to his friends–his books, or rather those who wrote the books in his library, or rather those components of their minds that are instantiated in the hardware-and-software combinations of linen, ink, and symbols of Gutenberg Information Technology that is his personal library. They are ‘ancient men’ who receive him ‘with affection,’ and for four hours he ‘ask[s] them the reason for their actions; and they in their kindness answer me; and… I do not feel boredom, I forget every trouble, I do not dread poverty, I am not frightened by death…’

Remember that Machiavelli lives only two generations after Gutenberg. He is thus one of the very first people in the world to have had a personal library. Before printing, libraries were the exclusive possession of kings, sovereign princes, abbots, masters of the Roman Empire (like Caesar and Cicero). The idea that a mere mortal–a disgraced ex-Assistant for Confidential Affairs to the Republic of Florence–might have a personal library would have been absurd even half a century before Machiavelli. To him, therefore, his personal library is not something he takes for granted, but something new, something he has that his predecessors did not. And so he can see clearly what his personal library does for him.

What does his personal library do for him? It does this: it enlarges his circle of friends. Especially in disgraced semi-exile–when many he would talk to are afraid to be seen in his company, and where he is afraid to be seen in the company of almost all the rest–the ability to read and reread his personal copies of Publius Ovidius Naso, Petrarch, Dante Alighieri, Titus Livius, Plutarch, and the rest makes them his friends: almost the only people who will receive him with affection, and definitely the only people who will honestly answer his questions about politics and history. And it is important to have such friends, and to pay them proper respect. Hence Machiavelli will not go to them in his clothes-of-the-day–those in which he had managed his farm, haggled over the price of firewood, gambled, and on which he had spilled beer. He will, instead, enter his library only in ‘garments regal and courtly.’

To my mind, studying the history of economic thought has much the same effect. It is not that any of us are in Machiavelli’s situation–where a single wrong sentence to the wrong person and we would find ourselves under torture in the dungeons of Florence’s Palazzo Vecchio. But it is very nice to add some highly intelligent, extremely witty, and very thoughtful people living far away–for the past is indeed far away, and in its strangeness provides an important element of perspective–to our circle of friends.

Moreover, people’s rough edges are filed off in their books. Adam Smith found Jean-Jacques Rousseau impossible in person, but that chunk of Rousseau’s mind that is instantiated in the hardware-and-software combination of Gutenberg Information Technology is very pleasant company. Nobody outside his family (save Friedrich Engels) could ever stand Karl Marx for any length of time. But that part of Marx’s mind that is instantiated in his books doesn’t fly into irrational rages, doesn’t accuse one of being a police spy, doesn’t beg for money, doesn’t demand that one accept that he is very much smarter than one. Instead, Marx-in-the-book speaks passionately of his hopes and fears for the future–hope coming from the progressive destiny of humanity and the extraordinary progress of technology, and fear coming from our constant tendency to f* up our social engineering problems–and (save when he starts raving Hegelian gibberish, or when you see that whole chunks of his argument fall away because he has confused the physical capital-output ratio with the value capital-output raio) can be very good company indeed.

And then there are those whom one really wishes one had gotten to know in person. For who would not like to be good friends with (if one were quick and witty enough to avoid becoming one of his targets) John Maynard Keynes, or David Hume, or John Stuart Mill, or Adam Smith?”