Must-read: Justin Fox: “About That U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance…”

Must-Read: Justin Fox: About That U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance…: “After a brutal period of downsizing and reorganizing…

…the U.S. manufacturing sector has become the most competitive in the world. Output per worker is higher than in any other major manufacturing country. Labor costs per unit of output are lower than in Brazil, Canada and Germany, and only slightly higher than in China. What’s more, writes Gregory Daco of Oxford Economics in the new report from which the above facts are taken, ‘the U.S. is ‘gifted’ with a stable regulatory framework, a flexible labor market, low energy costs and access to a large domestic market.’

So that’s great! Time for a manufacturing renaissance, right?… But… there are few signs of it actually happening yet. Yes, there are the almost 900,000 manufacturing jobs added in the U.S. since early 2010. But it’s important to see that for what it is–a modest rebound after a spectacular collapse…. Why isn’t reshoring taking off? Daco, of Oxford Economics, stressed that such shifts don’t happen overnight. ‘It takes quite a bit of time for a company to modify its supply chain,’ he said in a phone conversation. He also noted that ‘nearshoring’ to Mexico, where unit labor costs are still substantially lower than in the U.S., remains popular….

The countries of South and Southeast Asia… have labor forces that run into the hundreds of millions of workers, so the gradual shift of certain industries to other Asian low-cost countries is likely to continue…. Clothing- and furniture-making, for example, are unlikely to return to the U.S. in a big way. But in capital-goods manufacturing, labor costs matter less than technology and the existence of a local ecosystem of suppliers, consultants and skilled workers that can take a while to put together. In their rush to offshore, then, U.S. manufacturers may have permanently destroyed their ability to make certain products here. As Gary P. Pisano and Willy C. Shih wrote in a 2009 Harvard Business Review article:

In making their decisions to outsource, executives were heeding the advice du jour of business gurus and Wall Street: Focus on your core competencies, off-load your low-value-added activities, and redeploy the savings to innovation, the true source of your competitive advantage. But in reality, the outsourcing has not stopped with low-value tasks like simple assembly or circuit-board stuffing. Sophisticated engineering and manufacturing capabilities that underpin innovation in a wide range of products have been rapidly leaving too. As a result, the U.S. has lost or is in the process of losing the knowledge, skilled people, and supplier infrastructure needed to manufacture many of the cutting-edge products it invented.

This loss of capability could be what we’re seeing evidence of in the trade data. If so, a true U.S. manufacturing renaissance may be a long time coming.

Must-read: Dean Baker: “The Fed and the Quest to Raise Rates”

Must-Read: Dean Baker: The Fed and the Quest to Raise Rates: “The justification for raising rates is to prevent inflation from getting out of control…

…but inflation has been running well below the Fed’s 2.0 percent target for years. Furthermore, since the 2.0 percent target is an average inflation rate, the Fed should be prepared to tolerate several years in which the inflation rate is somewhat above 2.0 percent… [and] allow for a period in which real wage growth slightly outpaces productivity growth in order to restore the pre-recession split between labor and capital…. The most recent data provide much more reason for concern that the economy is slowing more than inflation is accelerating….

There are many other measures indicating that there continues to be considerable slack in the labor market despite the relatively low unemployment. There are no plausible explanations for the sharp drop in the employment rate of prime-age workers at all education levels from pre-recession levels, apart from the weakness of the labor market. The amount of involuntary part-time employment continues to be unusually high…. And the duration measures of unemployment spells and the share of unemployment due to voluntary quits are both much closer to recession levels than business cycle peaks…

Must-read: Richard Mayhew: “A California Earthquake for Narrow Networks”

Must-Read: Richard Mayhew: A California Earthquake for Narrow Networks: “[The] Covered California… exchange’s five-member board is slated to vote on…

…[whether] insurers would need to identify hospital ‘outliers’ on cost and quality starting in 2018. Medical groups and doctors would be rated after that. Providers who don’t measure up stand to lose insured patients and suffer a black eye that could sully their reputations with employers and other big customers. By 2019, health plans would be expected to expel poor performers from their exchange networks. The goal is to start trimming the inefficient high cost extremes.

In some ways, this is not an unusual move.  Narrow networks have been proliferating under the ACA, and they were around pre-ACA…. My employer’s best-selling commercial network is a narrow network built when Howard Dean was the favorite Vermonter among online liberals.  Narrow networks are usually built to get a better price and value proposition than a broad network… an insurer thinks it can steer thousands or tens of thousands of members to Provider A… so Provider A should give the insurer a volume discount.

When I was building narrow networks for Mayhew Insurance, there were a set of hospitals and provider groups that were in our broad network that we really tried not to use for the narrow products.  One… had good quality but a gold-plated contract that was paying them roughly twice the regional rate for a set of frequently used codes.  Another… tended to have very low HEDIS scores on basic things…. Other[s]… we were stuck using them as they were the only specialist of that type within forty miles, but we actively tried to… get new docs to those regions….

The interesting thing is the threat of en-masse exclusion to trim the outliers…. There are some significant concerns with implementation. The big one is what exactly is quality? Is it risk adjusted and if so, how is it just medical risk adjustment or is it medical and socio-economic risk adjusted? How does a provider appeal?  How does a provider get back in?… Even with those questions, this is an interesting experiment.

Must-read: Jared Bernstein: “The Fed’s Pause and the Dollar’s Retreat”

Must-Read: Jared Bernstein: The Fed’s Pause and the Dollar’s Retreat: “The linkage between the more dovish U.S. Fed and the recent decline in the dollar…

…is notable…. Last year, net exports subtracted 0.6 of a percentage point from real GDP growth and manufacturing job growth slowed sharply: factory jobs were up 208,000 in 2014 compared to 26,000 last year…. The value of the dollar moves roughly with the odds of a higher Fed funds rate. The decision not to raise at this week’s meeting and the somewhat dovish shift in their statement, which referenced global risks to the US outlook, contributed to a sharp decline in the dollar. In my view, that’s smart policy at work…

Must-reads: March 17, 2016


Must-read: Nick Rowe: “It’s easier to have a sensible fiscal rule with an NGDP level-path target”

Must-Read: Nick Rowe: It’s easier to have a sensible fiscal rule with an NGDP level-path target: “Even if you are skeptical about the feasibility of a formal fiscal rule…

…it’s a useful thought-experiment to help us be conceptually clear about what we want fiscal policy to look like…. One thing we want… is sustainab[ility] in the long run…. whether we think fiscal policy is or is not needed to help monetary policy stabilise aggregate demand. A sensible fiscal rule would not let the debt/GDP ratio wander off over time towards plus infinity or minus infinity…. We are talking about a ratio of debt to nominal GDP…. A (say) 5% Nominal GDP level-path target… would make it a lot easier to write down a sensible fiscal rule…. If you don’t have an NGDP level-path target, nobody know what NGDP will be be over the coming decades. So nobody knows what average deficit would be sustainable…. Sure, an NGDP level-path target only fixes one problem with getting fiscal policy right. But every little bit helps.

Must-read: Bernard Weisberger and Marshall Steinbaum: “Economists of the World, Unite!”

Must-Read: Bernard Weisberger and Marshall Steinbaum: Economists of the World, Unite!: “The original draft of that [American Economic Association] founding document…

…stated the group’s objectives as the encouragement of economic research and of ‘perfect freedom in all economic discussion.’ Then it went on:

We regard the state as an educational and ethical agency whose positive aid is an indispensable condition of human progress. While we recognize the necessity of individual initiative in industrial life, we hold that the doctrine of laissez-faire is unsafe in politics and unsound in morals; and that it suggests an inadequate explanation of the relations between the state and the citizens. We do not accept the final statements which characterized the political economy of a past generation…. We hold that the conflict of labor and capital has brought to the front a vast number of social problems whose solution is impossible without the united efforts of Church, state, and science.

This undisguised manifesto of rebellion against the economic orthodoxy of the Gilded Age raised eyebrows among the established preachers of ‘political economy.’ The state as an ‘ethical agency’ whose aid was ‘indispensable’? The ‘conflict of labor and capital’? Even after the denunciation of laissez-faire as ‘unsafe in politics and unsound in morals’ was removed from the final document, lest it appear that the new association had any motives beyond scientific advancement, the AEA was still understood as a challenge to the status quo. Indeed, the AEA was founded both to conduct scientific research and to agitate for reform, both inside academia and in the public sphere. At its start, the two missions were inextricably linked…

Must-read: Robert Z. Lawrence and Tyler Moran: “Adjustment and Income Distribution Impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership”

Must-Read: Robert Z. Lawrence and Tyler Moran: Adjustment and Income Distribution Impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: “Between 2017 and 2026, when most of the adjustment to the TPP occurs, the costs to workers who will be displaced…

…both from unemployment and lower future wages, will amount to about 6 percent of the agreement’s benefits…. The percentage gains for labor income from the TPP will be slightly greater than the gains to capital income. Households in all quintiles will benefit by similar percentages…. The agreement will confer net benefits to households at all levels of income and will certainly not worsen income inequality…

“Throwing money at the problem” may actually work in education

Students practice their mathematics skills at Ritter Elementary School in Los Angeles.

When it comes to tackling the United States’ large and growing achievement gap between high- and low-income children, today’s education policy entrepreneurs have increasingly adopted an accountability-and-evaluation mindset. Well-known policies including No Child Left Behind, Common Core standards, Race to the Top, and charter schools all stem from the conventional wisdom that we can’t just “throw money at the problem.”

But in the case of our national education policy, does this conventional wisdom hold true? Maybe not. New research by Julien Lafortune and Jesse Rothstein of the University of California, Berkeley, and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach of Northwestern University finds that an increase in relative funding for low-income school districts actually has a profound effect on the achievement of students in those districts.

The researchers look at the impact of “adequacy”-based finance reforms, enacted by 27 states over the past 20 years. These reforms sought to ensure that low-income school districts had enough money to provide their students with a high-quality education, even if that meant that their costs exceeded that of high-income school districts—a focus on “adequacy” rather than “equity.” Within states that implemented the reforms, the funding gap between low-income and high-income districts was eradicated without cutting funds for wealthier school districts. Rather, across-the-board spending increases meant that by 2011, these states spent an average of $1,150 more per pupil in low-income districts compared to high-income districts. States that did not enact the reforms, however, maintained an $800 gap in favor of wealthier schools.

But did these increased funds for low-income districts reduce educational inequality? By comparing outcomes in the states that implemented these school finance reforms and those that did not, LaFortune, Rothstein, and Schanzenbach find that the reforms had a considerable impact on the achievement gap between high- and low-income school districts. They found that increasing funding per pupil by about $1,000 raises test scores by 0.16 standard deviations—roughly twice the impact as investing the same amount in reduced class sizes (according to data from Project STAR, a highly acclaimed study of Tennessee schools in the 1980s).

As seen in the figure below from an issue brief summarizing the authors’ findings, states that did not enact reforms saw the achievement gap between low- and high-income school districts widen substantially between 1990 and 2011, partially due to rising overall inequality over the same period.

 

Still, no single policy is a panacea. While school finance reforms made an impressive dent in the achievement gap between low- and high- income districts, the authors find that the reforms had no significant impact on the gap between individual rich and poor students. That’s because while poor students (and minority students as well) are slightly more likely to attend school in a low-income district, there are still many low-income and minority students educated in high-income districts. As a result, these reforms might not have had a sizable effect on the relative resources available to most minority or low-income students.

That aside, this research calls attention to the improvements in reducing educational disparities within the states that implemented school finance reforms, and points to a potential path forward on a national scale. As the authors note, taken together, state “school finance reforms are perhaps the largest national effort we have made to increase equality of educational opportunity since the school desegregation movement.”

While we still need to make progress as far as disparities between individual students, this research makes a compelling and evidence-based case for school finance reform on a federal level. Rather than “throwing money at the problem,” no-strings-attached funds may actually make a difference for the country’s most disadvantaged school districts.