Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: A General Theory of Austerity

Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: A General Theory of Austerity: “I start by making a distinction… between fiscal consolidation, which is a policy decision, and austerity, which is an outcome where that fiscal consolidation leads to an increase in aggregate unemployment…

…Monetary policy can normally stop fiscal consolidation leading to austerity, but cannot when interest rates are stuck near zero…. I say that austerity is nearly always unnecessary… has nothing to do with markets: the Eurozone crisis from 2010 to 2012 was a result of mistakes by the ECB. If a union member’s government debt is not sustainable, there needs to be some form of default (Greece). If it is sustainable, then the central bank should back that government, as the ECB ended up doing with OMT in 2012…. None of this theory is at all new….

That makes the question of why policy makers made the mistake all the more pertinent. One set of arguments point to… austerity as an accident… Greece happened at a time when German orthodoxy was dominant…. [But this] does not explain what happened in the US and UK…. The set of arguments that I think have more force… reflect political opportunism on the political right which is dominated by a ‘small state’ ideology…. [But] how was the economics known since Keynes lost to simplistic household analogies[?]…. [And why] in this recession, but not in earlier economic downturns?… It does not have to be this way…. We cannot be complacent that when the next liquidity trap recession hits the austerity mistake will not be made again…

Equity crowdfunding is here. Now what?

Photo of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission building, in Washington, DC.

It’s taken almost four years, but now any American, regardless of their income level, can invest in start-ups. Known as equity crowdfunding, this change to regulation seemingly throws open the door for everyday Americans to invest in companies that aren’t yet listed on public stock exchanges such as NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange. As part of the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act, or JOBS Act, the crowdfunding provision was developed in the hope that it would, as the name says, jumpstart small business formation. And at the same time, with high-growth companies increasing staying private, some people hope equity crowdfunding will broaden investor access to the high-returns of these young firms beyond venture capitalists, institutional investors, and high-net-worth individuals.

But with investing officially allowed today, it seems unlikely either of these dreams will come to fruition any time soon. That’s not to says that the U.S. economy isn’t in need of a jumpstart when it comes to new business creation. The start-up rate has been on the decline since the 1980s without any sign the trend is about to reverse. Not only are startups less likely, but the decline has been very pronounced for high-growth startups. In short, there are fewer startups and the ones that do exist grow slower.

A policy change that accelerates business startups and their growth would certainly be welcomed. The reasons for the decline in the startup rate (and overall business dynamism) aren’t well understood. But it seems unlikely that access to capital is a powerful reason, as credit became more available at the same time that the startup rate began declining.

But even if capital were at the heart of the problem when it comes to high-growth startup, the new equity crowdfunding measures seem unlikely to help. When the rule was finalized by the Securities and Exchange Commission late last year, Nick Tommarello of the investment crowdfunding platform WeFunder wrote about some of his concerns with the rule. His chief concern: The rule doesn’t allow newly eligible investors (those who weren’t already rich enough to invest before) to pool their funds together to invest in new firms looking for investors.

As Tommarello explains, because high-growth startups with a large number of investors may scare away later-stage investors, they prefer to lump the crowdfunders together into  one bigger fund. This means the new regulation will make it extremely difficult if not impossible for everyday Americans to invest in potential high-growth startups. Recipients of new funding will most likely be firms that didn’t have access to funding previously and have a low growth potential. These small businesses may be good businesses, but they likely aren’t the kind that’ll significantly boost employment and productivity growth in the United States.

This part of the regulation also means that average investors won’t have direct access to the kind of returns that accredited investors and venture capital funds do. Now, that might be a good thing as these kinds of investments are high-risk. Given the state of saving in the United States, policymakers may not want to encourage everyday Americans to invest in such risky assets. Perhaps traditional mutual funds may be able to provide some access to these returns in the future, though their current experience valuing these kinds of firms might make us less optimistic on that front.

Increasing business dynamism in the U.S. economy is vital to long-term economic growth and prosperity. In a period of weak productivity growth, new high-growth entrepreneurial firms have the potential to help boost the productive capacity of our economy in the long-run. Unfortunately, it seems the JOBS Act, one of the first efforts in this area, is unlikely to be a big step forward. But in the spirit of startups, we should pick ourselves up quickly from this misstep, dust ourselves off, and pivot to the next idea.

Must-reads: May 17, 2016

Must-read: Kara Scannell and Vanessa Houlder: “US Tax Havens–The New Switzerland”

Must-Read: Kara Scannell and Vanessa Houlder: US Tax Havens–The New Switzerland: “In an old discount store hugging a corner in downtown Sioux Falls, South Dakota…

…the heirs to the William Wrigley chewing gum fortune have an office for their family trust. So do the Carlson family, owners of the Radisson hotel chain, and the family of John Nash, the late hedge fund giant. They are among the 40 trust companies sharing an address at 201 South Phillips Avenue, a modest, two-storey white-brick building. Inside, $80bn worth of trust assets are administered…. Assets held in South Dakotan trusts have grown from $32.8bn in 2006 to more than $226bn in 2014…

Maybe central banks should buy stocks as well

Specialist Charles Boeddinghaus, center, works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, May 13, 2016.

The main tools for fighting recessions have been fairly consistent: Central banks lower interest rates, and governments cut taxes and increase spending. Over the past few years, there have been innovations when it comes to monetary policy, with banks trying quantitative easing—the purchase of long-term bonds—and the recent adventures into negative nominal rate territory. But central banks are still largely in the business of intervening in the short-term end of the bond market. Perhaps monetary policy or fiscal policy, should consider intervening in a much riskier market: stocks.

The idea that policymakers may want to buy and sell stocks in the equity markets is far from mainstream, but University of California, Los Angeles economist Roger Farmer is forcefully arguing this idea. Understanding the case for intervening in the stock market first requires walking through Farmer’s views of the macroeconomy. For the most part, economists believe that the overall economy is self-correcting—that after a recession, the economy will eventually return to its previous size and growth rate. The debate is about how quickly the economy will return to that point and how to help it get there. But Farmer doesn’t subscribe to that underlying assumption. Farmer argues that an economy can get stuck in a situation where economic output is lower and won’t return to its previous size and growth rate until proactive action is taken to boost the economy.

Farmer’s argument stems from the idea that, according to his research, capital markets aren’t efficient. Price changes in assets like stocks aren’t based on changes in fundamentals of the assets, such as potential profits, but rather on seemingly random fluctuations in belief. In a recent paper, Farmer builds a model that incorporates this assumption along with one other assumption: People live and die. The fact that there are generational changes in the model allows for jumps in the prices of equities, which cause recessions or booms, to result in changes in the distribution of wealth and consumption across generations. This makes sense if you consider the large costs to recent graduates who enter labor markets during recessions.

Farmer’s model with these assumptions manages to partly explain two big puzzles in financial economics: the fact of excess volatility in stock prices, and the fact that the returns on equities are far above those of government bonds.

So how should policymakers make sure that these transfers (recessions) don’t happen? Well, if the problem is that asset prices are fluctuating too much, then policymakers have a reason to intervene in these markets to stabilize prices. Central banks or treasuries would buy stocks when the market is on the decline and sell when the market is on the upswing.

This idea does have some precedent. Consider the quantitative easing programs many central banks have implemented in recent years. Part of those programs are pure quantitative easing according to Farmer and Pawel Zabczyk (expanding the size of a central bank’s balance sheet) as well as qualitative easing (bringing more risky assets onto the balance sheet). Adding stocks would just be a change in the riskiness of the assets purchased. The Bank of Japan has been buying stocks via exchange-traded funds for years, though Farmer says it’s important not to just buy stocks but to do so in a way that reduces changes in the relative price of stocks.

For now, Farmer’s ideas are still at the edges of the policymaking world. But then again, so were the ideas that central banks would cut rates below zero or even contemplate “helicopter money.” Recent years have found opportunities for those ideas. Perhaps the future will find some for Farmer’s.

What can the state see? Or, the extraordinary power of the night-watchman state

Hoisted from 2010: James Scott, “Legibility,” Flavius Apion, Anoup, the Emperor Justinian, Robin of Locksley, Rebecca Daughter of Mordecai, King Richard, and Others..: Cato Unbound: James Scott: The Trouble with the View from Above.: A comment:

In 542 AD the late Roman (early Byzantine?) Emperor Justinian I wrote to his Praetorian Prefect concerning the army–trained and equipped and paid for by the Roman State to control the barbarians and to ‘increase the state.’ Justinian was, Peter Sarris reports in his Economy and Society in the Age of Justinian, upset that:

certain individuals had been daring to draw away soldiers and foederati from their duties, occupying such troops entirely with their own private business…. The emperor… prohibit[ed] such individuals from drawing to themselves or diverting troops… having them in their household… on their property or estates…. [A]ny individual who, after thirty days, continues to employ soldiers to meet his private needs and does not return them to their units will face confiscation of property… ‘and those soldiers and fioderati who remain in paramonar attendance upon them… will not only be deprived of their rank, but also undergo punishments up to and including capital punishment.’

Justinian is worried because what is going on in the country he rules is not legible to him. Soldiers–soldiers whom he has trained, equipped, and paid for–have been hired away from their frontier duties by the great landlords of the Empire and employed on their estates and in the areas they dominate as bully-boys. One such great landlord was Justinian’s own sometime Praefectus Praetorio per Orientem Flavius Apion, to whom one of Flavius’s tenants and debtors, one Anoup, wrote:

No injustice or wickedness has ever attached to the glorious household of my kind lord, but it is ever full of mercy and overflowing to supply the needs of others. On account of this I, the wretched slave of my good lord, wish to bring it to your lordship’s knowledge by this present entreaty for mercy that I serve my kind lord as my fathers and forefathers did before me and pay the taxes every year. And by the will of God… my cattle died, and I borrowed the not inconsiderable amount of 15 solidi…. Yet when I approached my kind lord and asked for pity in my straits, those belonging to my lord refused to do my lord’s bidding. For unless your pity extends to me, my lord, I cannot stay on my ktema and fulfill my services with regard to the properties of the estate. But I beseech and urge your lordship to command that mercy be shown to me because of the disaster that has overtaken me…

The late Roman Empire as Justinian wished it to be would consist of (a) slaves, (b) free Roman citizens (some of whom owned a lot of land), (c) soldiers, (d) bureaucrats, and (e) an emperor. The slaves would work for their masters. Slaves along with their citizen masters and non-slaveholding citizens would farm the empire (some of the citizens owning their land; some renting it). All would be prosperous and pay their taxes. And the emperor would use the taxes to pay the soldiers who dealt with the Persians, the Huns, the Goths, and the Vandals; to fund the building of Hagia Sophia and other works of architecture in Constantinople; and to promote the true faith and extirpate heresy. If the countryside were legible to him, that is how things would be–slaves and citizens in their places, landlords and tenants in their mutually-beneficial contractual relationships, all prosperous and all paying their taxes to support the empire.

But Justinian knows very well that the countryside is not legible to him. The contracts that Flavius Apion makes with his tenants are made under the shadow of the threat that if Flavius Apion does not like the way things are going he will send a bucellarius to beat you up. Anoup is not pointing out to Flavius Apion that their landlord-tenant relationship is a good thing and that keeping him as a tenant rather than throwing him off the land for failure to pay the rent is in both their interests. Instead, Anoup is calling himself a slave (which he is not). Anoup is calling Flavius Apion a lord (which he is not supposed to be). Anoup is appealing to a long family history of dependence of himself and his ancestors on the various Flavii Apionoi and Flavii Strategioi of past generations. Justinian thinks that things would be better served if the countryside were properly legible to him and he could enforce reality to correspond to the legal order of slaves and citizens, tenants and landlords interacting through contract, and taxpayers. Flavius Apion would prefer that the order be one of proto-feudalism: that all the Anoups know and understand that they are at his mercy, and that the emperor is far, far away. And we don’t know what Anoup thinks. We do know thait does not sound as though he experiences the lack of legibility of the countryside to the emperor and his state as a full and complete liberation. And we do know that the Emperor Justinian was gravely concerned about the transformation of his soldiers into bucellarii, into the dependent bully-boys of the landlords–both because it meant that they were not on the borders where they belonged and because it disturbed what he saw as the proper balance of power in the countryside and what he saw as the emperor’s justice.

Justinian’s big (and to him insoluble) problem was that the Flavius Apion whose bully-boys beat up his tenants when they displeased was the same Flavius Apion who headed Justinian’s own bureaucracy.

Thus when James Scott speaks of how local knowledge and local arrangements having the ability to protect the people of civil society from an overmighty, blundering state, I say ‘perhaps’ and I say ‘sometimes.’

It is certainly the case that the fact that Sherwood Forest is illegible to the Sheriff of Nottingham allows Robin of Locksley and Maid Marian to survive. But that is just a stopgap. In the final reel of Ivanhoe the fair Rebecca must be rescued from the unworthy rogue Templar Sir Brian de Bois-Guilbert (and packed offstage to marry some young banker or rabbi), the Sheriff of Nottingham and Sir Guy of Gisborne must receive their comeuppance, the proper property order of Nottinghamshire must be restored, and Wilfred must marry the fair Rowena–and all this is accomplished by making Sherwood Forest and Nottinghamshire legible to the true king, Richard I ‘Lionheart’ Plantagenet, and then through his justice and good lordship.

A state that makes civil society legible to itself cannot protect us from its own fits of ideological terror, or even clumsy thumb-fingeredness. A state to which civil society is illegible cannot help curb roving bandits or local notables. And neither type of state has proved terribly effective at constraining its own functionaries.

In some ways, the ‘night watchman’ state–the state that enables civil society to develop and function without distortions imposed by roving bandits, local notables, and its own functionaries, but that also is content to simply sit back and watch civil society–is the most powerful and unlikely state of all.

Must-read: Ernst Gellner: “Nations and Nationalism”

Must-Read: Ernst Gellner (1998): Nations and Nationalism:: “It may be worthwhile giving a short, no doubt incomplete, list…

…of false theories of nationalism:

  1. It is natural and self-evident and self-generating. If absent, this must be due to forceful repression.
  2. It is an artificial consequence of ideas which did not need ever to be formulated, and appeared by a regrettable accident. Political life even in industrial societies could do without it.
  3. The Wrong Address Theory favored by Marxism: Just as extreme Shi’ite Muslims hold that Archangel Gabriel made a mistake, delivering the Message to Mohamed when it was intended for Ali, so Marxists basically like to think that the spirit of history of human consciousness made terrible boob. The awakening message was intended for classes, but by some terrible postal error was delivered to nations. It is now necessary for revolutionary activists to persuade the wrongful recipient to hand over the message, and the zeal it engenders, to the rightful and intended recipient. The unwillingness of both the rightful and the usurping recipient to fall in with this requirement causes the activist great irritation…

Must-read: Ben Thompson: “Antitrust and Aggregation”

Must-Read: Ben Thompson: Antitrust and Aggregation: “What ultimately undid Microsoft…

…and why that $95 billion revenue figure was a peak; the current trailing twelve month number is $87 billion–was that even as Windows continued to have a monopoly on laptops and desktops the definition of a computer was dramatically expanded to include smartphones (and, to a lesser extent, tablets). And while many Microsoft partisans argue that the antitrust-related restrictions caused the company to miss mobile, the truth is Apple’s iPhone succeeded by being a very different product than Windows, and Android leveraged a very different business model; if anything Microsoft’s PC dominance meant their mobile failure was inevitable as the company was ill-equipped to think differently…