Must-Read: Matthew Yglesias: Financial markets are begging the US, Europe, and Japan to run bigger deficits

Must-Read: Matthew Yglesias: Financial markets are begging the US, Europe, and Japan to run bigger deficits: “The international financial community wants to lend money this cheaply…

… [so] governments should borrow money and put it to good use. Ideally that would mean spending it on infrastructure projects that are large, expensive, and useful–the kind of thing that will pay dividends for decades to come…. But if you don’t believe there are any useful projects or if your country’s political system is simply too gridlocked to find them, there are easy alternatives. Do a broad-based tax cut…. The opportunity to borrow this cheaply (probably) won’t last forever, and countries that boost their deficits will (probably) have to reverse course, but while it lasts everyone could be enjoying a better life instead of pointless austerity.

Must-Reads: June 16, 2016


Should Reads:

  • Paul Krugman: Bondage Fantasies at the WSJ: “Back in early 2009… rising rates, the paper declared, were a sign that all-wise markets feared budget deficits and inflation… government was the problem. Seven years on… [has] the Journal has apologized for getting it all wrong?… Hahahahaha. Instead… low rates are not a sign that governments should build infrastructure, or that inflation is too low. They ‘reflect a lack of confidence in options for private investment.’ So rising rates show that government is the problem, and falling rates also show that government is the problem.”
  • John Holbo: Walton’s Republic
  • Cardiff Garcia: Reminder: Macro Live, Janet Yellen presser edition, starting at 1:50pm EST: “Matt Klein and I will be joined by Alex Scaggs…. For some light pre-statement reading, we recommend: Recession Watch and the Global Reach of Fed Policy, by David Beckworth; Five Questions for Janet Yellen, by Tim Duy; QE, Basel III and the Fed’s New Target Rate, by Zoltan Poszar; The Fed is making the same mistakes over and over again, by Larry Summers”
  • Matt Klein: Markets keep fighting the Fed, will the Fed keep letting them win?: “In the past, the Fed has reacted to diminished expectations for the longer-term level of short-term interest rates by adjusting its own forecast. We’ll be sure to check if the pattern continues today.”

Must-Read: FOMC: Press Release–June 15, 2016

Must-Read: Somebody really should have dissented from this press release: if 0.5% is the forecast of the appropriate Fed Funds rate in 2018, zero is the appropriate Fed Funds rate now.

But who? Charlie Evans or Lael Brainard? I would bet Lael, based solely on the Fed convention that a Governor’s dissent is a much bigger deal than a Regional Bank President’s dissent. But that is only a guess: I do not know…

Https www federalreserve gov monetarypolicy files fomcprojtabl20160615 pdf

FOMC: Press Release–June 15, 2016: “The pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up…

…Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation declined; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months…. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will strengthen. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term…. Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate…. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation…. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data…

Must-Read: Gauti B. Eggertsson, Neil R. Mehrotra, Sanjay R. Singh, and Lawrence H. Summers: A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation

Must-Read: Gauti B. Eggertsson, Neil R. Mehrotra, Sanjay R. Singh, and Lawrence H. Summers: A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation: “We consider an overlapping generations, open economy model of secular stagnation…

…and examine the effect of capital flows on the transmission of stagnation. In a world with a low natural rate of interest, greater capital integration transmits recessions across countries…. In a global secular stagnation, expansionary fiscal policy carries positive spillovers implying gains from coordination, and fiscal policy is self-financing. Expansionary monetary policy, by contrast, is beggar-thy-neighbor…. Competitiveness policies, including structural labor market reforms or neomercantilist trade policies, are also beggar-thy-neighbor in a global secular stagnation…

Are U.S. government economic surveys reaching the right mix of respondents?

New research finds that people’s willingness or ability to respond to a government survey is related to their working status, possibly biasing the survey results.

Surveys conducted by U.S. government statistical agencies are not an inherently exciting topic. Most people are fine knowing that the federal government calculates the unemployment rate. They might even care to know that the survey used to calculate that rate is known as the Current Population Survey, though that might be stretching it. Beyond that, the specifics of survey methodology aren’t going to grab headlines anytime soon.

But policymakers depend upon these statistical surveys to inform them about the U.S. economy, which means they should be concerned about potential bias in the data. Such bias isn’t intentional, instead stemming from the reality that sometimes it’s hard to get people to sit down for an interview for a survey. After all, for a survey to be able to say anything accurate about the entire population, it has to be representative. This is why polls and surveys will get reweighted to account for the fact that the demographics of the people they interviewed won’t be exactly the same as the country as a whole. Maybe they interviewed a lower percentage of African Americans than the national percentage or they interviewed relatively more women. The final results will account for that difference.

But what if the survey doesn’t account for some differences among workers that could bias statistics? According to a new research paper, such bias may exist in some important government surveys. The new paper by economists Ori Heffetz and Daniel B. Reeves at the National Bureau of Economic Research shows that there’s a relationship between how easy it is to get a person to respond to certain survey and their answers to the questions in the survey. In other words, the willingness or ability to respond to a survey is a characteristic of respondents that survey designers should consider because it skews results.

The economists consider three surveys—the Current Population Survey, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System—but let’s look at the relatively more familiar Current Population Survey for an example of the dynamics they examine. The CPS keeps track of how many times it takes to contact a respondent for an interview (one time, two times, or three or more times). Heffetz and Reeves look to see if there is any relationship between the difficulty of reaching someone and their answers about their working status and whether they are unemployed. They find that there is a relationship—people who are harder to reach are more likely to be in the labor force and have a job. In other words, the labor force participation rate for these respondents is higher and the unemployment rate is lower.

Now how does this produce a bias? Well, if we think of non-respondents as people who are extremely hard to contact then this would mean they are likely to have higher labor force participation rates and lower unemployment rates. Of course, without additional information on non-respondents, the authors can’t directly verify this assumption. But if this assumption is true, it means that as the response rate for surveys such as the Current Population Survey and other government surveys decline—as they have been in recent years—then this bias will increase. For policymakers and scholars interested in having unbiased economic data, this trend presents quite an unfortunate problem.

Must-Read: Y. Berman, O. Peters and A. Adamou: Far from Equilibrium: Wealth Reallocation in the United States

Must-Read: Well, well, well–since the 1980s modeling the U.S. wealth distribution as an endless non-ergodic inegalitarian spiral seems to fit rather well. That’s a genuine surprise…

Y. Berman, O. Peters and A. Adamou: Far from Equilibrium: Wealth Reallocation in the United States: “We fit observed distributions of wealth–how many people have how much–to a model of noisy exponential growth and reallocation…

…Everyone’s wealth is assumed to follow geometric Brownian motion (GBM), enhanced by a term that collects from everyone at a rate in proportion to his wealth and redistributes the collected amount evenly across the population. We use US data from 1917 until 2012. Firstly, we find that the best-fit reallocation rate has been negative since the 1980s, meaning everyone pays the same dollar amount and the collected amount is redistributed in proportion to his wealth, a flow of wealth from poor to rich. This came as a big surprise: GBM on its own generates indefinitely increasing inequality, and one would expect this extreme model to require a correction that reduces the default tendency of increasing inequality. But that’s not the case: recent conditions are such that GBM needs to be corrected to speed up the increase in wealth inequality if we want to describe the observations. Secondly, our model has an equilibrium (ergodic) distribution if reallocation is positive, and it has no such distribution if reallocation is negative. Fitting the reallocation rate thus asks the system: are you ergodic? And the answer is no. With current best-fit parameters the model is non-ergodic, and throughout history whenever the parameters implied the existence of an ergodic distribution, their values implied equilibration times on the order of decades to centuries, so that the equilibrium state had no practical relevance. http://arXiv:1605.05631

Must-Read: Tierney Sneed: Inside Louisiana’s Blockbuster Medicaid Expansion Roll Out

Tierney Sneed: Inside Louisiana’s Blockbuster Medicaid Expansion Roll Out: “Louisiana’s Medicaid expansion marked a major breakthrough for Obamacare…

…Now that the program has been open for enrollment for two weeks, the dramatic success the state has had in bringing residents into the program has attracted national attention. Since June 1… more than 201,000 people have enrolled. The state is well on track to meet its 375,000-enrollee goal, which will save Louisiana an estimated $184 million in the next year. Those numbers are even more remarkable given the obstacles facing the Edwards administration, namely the refusal of the GOP legislature to fund even one new employee to ease the transition to the expanded program….

Without any additional funding for the roll out–meaning no new state employees, no eligibility workers, nor any other new administrative tool to ensure that Louisianans were taking advantage of the expanded coverage–the state had to depend on the infrastructure of existing social service programs, whose participants were eligible for the Medicaid expansion. The tactic had the dual advantage of saving the state money while creating an application process that was minimally burdensome…. That creative approach… helped Louisiana achieve the numbers that it did. ‘Louisiana, through doing this, is definitely being a leader in trying to use these available resources to streamline and make enrollment efficient,’ Samantha Artiga, a Medicaid expert at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told TPM….

To pull together the program, the state sought out the assistance of non-governmental organizations like Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Kaiser and Milbank. ‘As a former Robert Woods Johnson clinical scholar and someone who had been in academia, my mindset has always been focused on, ‘How do I get grants?’ Gee said. Making matters more difficult, the state was seeking out outside support after the wave of initial grant money–much of it going to early adopter states–had dried up. ‘We missed out,’ Gee said, of the initial round of Center for Medicare & Medicaid innovation grants that went to states that expanded Medicaid right off the bat. ‘So here we are, needing it more than those places probably did without the ability to apply for those types of grants,’ she said. The state did find outside help, though mostly in the form of consulting and technical assistance…

Why Not Up the Mississippi?: Outtake from Cohen and DeLong, Concrete Economics

Preview of Why Not Up the Mississippi Outtake from Cohen and DeLong Concrete Economics

The conventional–pioneer–wisdom in American history is, still, that independent, entrepreneurial people settled the continent in small farms and established this civilization, pulling themselves up by their own bootstraps and building things through their own energy and enterprise, aided by democracy and the legal infrastructure of the free market.

This, of course, misses three big and immediate things:

  • First, the Amerindians who had been 12000 years in residence rightly objected–both to the plagues the European settlers brought that decimated their populations and then to the form the civilization being built took. Behind small-farm settlement stood conquest–and conquest requires governments and armies, not free-market association and catallaxy.

  • Second, a great deal of the surplus generated by the American economy–and used to finance its development–up to and beyond 1865 came from slavery–once again, not a free-market institution by any means.

  • Third, conquest and slavery do not by themselves build a prosperous economy, let alone an economy as prosperous as that of America today. Behind small-farm settlement stands an enormous public-sector governmental framework of institutions, infrastructure, and incentives necessary for an economy to be truly developmental.

As we have argued elsewhere, to a truly remarkable degree all United States citizens today owe that framework to the one single individual who may have made a significant difference in American political economic history, Alexander Hamilton—although even he needed his followers and successors to make a durable impact.

But, before there was a Hamilton, before there was a United States of America, there were earlier deliberate shapings of the economy of North America-to-be. These shaping were carried out by the colonial powers who ruled North American: Spain, France and Britain–and, in the end, especially by the British politicians who decided on the form that the British colonizing effort in the Americas would take.. Their plans and powers resulted in a pre-revolutionary American economy that was quite different in where it was located and how it was organized from what nature–also known as economic geography—-would appear to have intended.

Back in the 17th century the British government made the decision that its colonial policy would be to bet on populating the Atlantic seaboard–at least the Atlantic seaboard north of Virginia–with colonies based on staple agriculture and yeoman settlement, rather than with colonies based on treasure theft, on forced-labor mining, on slave-plantation agriculture, or on long-distance trade:

  • To some degree, this was a matter of necessity: Britain being late to the American colonial enterprise, It had to take what was left over.

  • To some degree, this was because the British government was not an absolutist one with Bastilles available, and it seemed wise to try to diminish domestic tensions by subsidizing the emigration of especially-vocal malcontents–whether Puritan, Quaker, or Catholic.

  • But mostly this was a matter of policy: from the days of Francis Drake on British expeditions to the Americas carried colonists rather than plantation owners and conquistadores, or rather than missionaries and coureurs du bois.

Thus Spanish and French, governments largely ignored their potential colonists outside the forts, ports, and trading posts they established–St. Augustine, Mobile, New Orleans, etc. They largely eschewed support for yeoman settlement and staple small-farm agriculture. They pushed for resource exploitation via long-distance trade, treasure-theft, extractive and exploitative plantation agriculture, and mining. And these industries were accompanied by extractive political-economic institutions. They were tuned to maximize the short-run financial flow to the metropole and the chances of proconsuls being able to return to the European capital with their fortunes in a decade or less. This did not provide a large incentive for French and Spanish subjects to migrate and large numbers. This did not provide a large incentive for those who did migrate to stay.

The English governments, by contrast, provided a very visible hand in support of colonial settlement–and, of course, provided a mailed fist directed against the North American continent’s Amerindian inhabitants. This mattered enormously.

The English settled the wrong, eastern, Atlantic coast. Ships probing upward along the rivers soon encountered rapids, and beyond the rapids came the mountains: the great Appalachian Range. The Spanish and French built their port-forts on the proper, southern, Gulf coast of America. From that base broad navigable rivers allowed rapid, cheap, and easy movement inland; culminating, of course, in the unique Mississippi-Missouri-Ohio River. Spain had, of course, known about the Mississippi Valley since Hernando de Soto’s thousand-man expedition of 1540.

Gulf of Mexico-based settlement provided a major advantage. The settler agricultural economies possible in the seventeenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth centuries were far from self-sufficient. Their spearheads required the weight of full spearshafts behind them, in the form of a steady supply of largely hand-made manufactured goods–high-tech for their time–from Europe.

Thus the southern, water road to the most fertile and valuable parts of agricultural America was the obvious and optimal one. A simple glance at the map of where U.S. agriculture is today tells the story. America’s prime agricultural resources are in the watersheds of the St. Lawrence, Mississippi-Missouri-Ohio, Sacramento-San Joaquin, and Columbia Rivers–not east of the Appalachians:

NewImage

Expansion up the Mississippi from the south seemed natural. Expansion from the east across the Appalachians seemed not. And those who crossed the Appalachians would do so without a sound logistical tail. And without secure transport links behind them, such migrants could be, at best, itinerant trappers and woodsmen–not agricultural settlers.

However, the Spanish authorities in charge along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico in the sixteenth, seventeenth, and second half of the eighteenth centuries, and the French authorities in charge in the first half of the eighteenth century, did not design a settler economy. Thus the initial British governmental decisions to design their version of colonial America by yeoman settlement made New York City rather than New Orleans or St. Louis the economic capital of America. It changed the destiny of the continent. Government trumped geography. And government trumped geography because the British colonial government made it so, while the French and Spanish colonial governments did not.

The British deciders in the thirteen colonies and their successors in the United States believed in and acted to make Manifest Destiny via agricultural settlement a reality. The Spanish and French deciders who controlled the mouth of the Mississippi up to 1803 did not. Thus while the logic of geography strongly suggests that the largest city of colonial America really ought to have been New Orleans, that was not the way it happened. Better agricultural land and better water transportation than was available east of the Appalachians did not lead to mass settlement: New Orleans in 1800 did have 10,000 people, but St. Louis had only 1000, Chicago did not exist, and Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Nashville were then villages being settled not from the southwest but from the east by people trecking over the Alleghany Mountains and through the Cumberland Gap.

By contrast, New York in 1800 had 80,000 people, Philadelphia 40,000, Boston 25,000, and Charleston, SC 20,000: 165,000 people in cities of 10,000 or more east of the Appalachians, and so (then) cut off from what was to become America’s productive heartland, with only 10,000 people in cities with easy access to what would become the farmbelt. The overall population mix disparity was the same: 1800 saw 5.0 million people of recent European and African descent settled in the original thirteen states, with only 300,000 in the Missouri-Mississippi-Ohio Valleys.

As of 1800, the European colonization and settlement of North America had, from the perspective of matching colonists to where the resources and the logistic and transportation avenues were, completely wrong.

Must-Reads: June 15, 2016


Should Reads:

Must-Read: Bill Emmott: Let’s Get Fiscal

Must-Read: I find myself thinking that when Larry and I presented our “Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy” back in 2012, some critics (Valerie Ramey) said they did not think there was hysteresis–that recessions did not, in fact, cast shadows on future productive potential–other critics (Marty Feldstein) said that they thought recessions had a cleansing effect (either through sectoral-adjustment or policy-reform channels) and hence boosted future potential; and yet others (Ken Rogoff) believed that the interest rates on government debt did not in fact represent the true opportunity cost of government borrowing, and it would turn out to be very expensive for even reserve currency-issuing sovereigns with exorbitant privilege to pull the fiscal-expansion fire alarm.

I wonder if any of them would claim that austerity lowers future debt/GDP burdens today?

Bill Emmott: Let’s Get Fiscal: “There can be pain without gain–a lesson that Western populations have been learning the hard way since at least 2012…

…With years of fiscal austerity in the United States, Europe, and Japan having achieved nothing, it is time for governments to start spending again. The proposal will be met with outrage from many governments, especially, but not exclusively, Germany’s, and will be dismissed by the many political candidates who treat sovereign debt, built up by the incumbents they are seeking to depose, as the devil’s work. But beyond ideology and self-interest lies a simple and unavoidable truth: austerity is not working. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reluctantly acknowledged austerity’s failure…. The eurozone–the developed world’s leading champion of austerity–has yet to come to the same realization, despite glaring evidence. In 2012, eurozone leaders signed a fiscal compact aimed at controlling public debt–which, in total, amounted to 91.3% of GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund – by forcing countries to cut spending and raise taxes. By 2015, the eurozone’s budget deficit, as a share of GDP, had fallen by two-thirds from its peak in 2010.
Yet gross public debt had actually increased, to 93.2% of GDP….

The more governments cut their deficits, the faster growth slows–and the further out of reach debt-reduction targets become. Thus runs the self-defeating cycle of fiscal austerity…. Policymakers after 2010… assume[d] that reducing government demand would help to boost private investment. (In the eurozone, it should be noted, arguments for fiscal austerity were also fueled by mistrust among governments, with creditor countries demanding that debtors endure some pain in exchange for ‘gains’ like bailouts.) But times have changed. For starters, we are no longer living in an inflationary era…. Pursuing austerity in this context has resulted in a drag on growth so severe that not even the halving of energy prices over the last 18 months has overcome it.

Expansionary monetary policy–that is, massive injections of liquidity through so-called quantitative easing–is clearly not enough, either…. In today’s world, nothing can substitute for fiscal expansion…. Europe needs a new Marshall Plan, this time self-financed, rather than funded by the Americans, to kick-start economic growth and boost productivity. There is plenty of scope for a similar program in the US, too…. At a time of low borrowing costs and little to no inflation (or even deflation), austerity is not the answer. It is time for policymakers to recognize that there is no need for pain that is not bringing any gain. It is time to get fiscal.