Another Employment Report with Yet Another Data Point in the Continuing Flat-Lining of the Employment-to-Population Ratio
There has been very little recovery of the employment share from its business-cycle nadir trough. Very little. And it isn’t happening now.
Two-thirds of the 1.2%-point reduction in the unemployment rate in the past year comes from a further decline in labor-force participation; only one-third comes from an increase in the employment-to-population ratio:
Nominal wages today are 2.05% above their level of last year–and with a 2%/year trend rate of labor-productivity growth, that means that the rate of inflation consistent with a stable labor share of income is 0.05%. There is no inflation pressure on this economy at all save for pressure exerted by widening inequality, and damned little of that: