Morning Must-Read: Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Gérard Roland: What Is at Stake in Crimea?
Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Gérard Roland: What is at stake in Crimea? “Annexing Crimea [is not] likely to be his ultimate objective: Crimea obtains almost all of its fresh water and electricity from continental Ukraine, many of its people will resist a return to Russia….
What are the real reasons for Putin’s actions and what is at stake?… There is a strong determination among a large majority of Ukrainians to live under democratic institutions of high quality, similar to those in the West…. The success of this revolution is Putin’s worst nightmare, because such a revolution could extend to Russia too…. Putin is therefore determined to do everything he can to make the young Ukrainian democratic experience a failure. The invasion of Crimea was a first step….
There were three key elements to his logic. First, an occupation of Crimea and other parts of Ukraine would be greeted as liberation from a coup in Kiev. Second, Europe and the rest of the civilised world would be divided and unable to present a united front against the aggression: Western politicians would not risk energy supplies from Russia or ruin diplomatic relations with Russia over Ukraine. Third, the Russian propaganda would depict the February revolution as a fascist coup…. So far, his calculations have not proved right…. This strong international reaction may appear particularly surprising given the paralysis of politicians in previous crises and the absence of clear Western geopolitical interests in Ukraine. However, the stakes are incredibly high….
In 1994, Ukraine voluntarily gave up the 3rd largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. No other country has done it. Ukraine’s act of good will was heralded as a major success of efforts to limit proliferation…. In exchange, Russia, the US and the U.K.— and later France and China —guaranteed the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine…. In light of this, how can one credibly guarantee the sovereignty and integrity of countries protected by non-proliferation and military treaties?… Many countries – including Ukraine – have the technical capacity to rapidly develop nuclear weapons…. The invasion of Crimea may thus trigger a chain of events that threaten world peace….
One must help the new government and the reform process in Ukraine…. Economic aid and technical expertise… the association agreement with the EU… political and economic decentralisation… stop the Russian aggression… a credible commitment to support the Ukrainian government in case of military confrontation inside Ukraine may in fact deescalate the conflict… debunk the Orwellian lies coming from Russia…. Despite the explosiveness of the current situation, the invasion is likely to backfire for Putin…