Potential Output and Total Factor Productivity since 2000: Marking My Beliefs to Market: The Honest Broker for the Week of September 26, 2014

I am still thinking about the best assessment of potential output and productivity growth that we have--that of the extremely-sharp John Fernald's "Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession". And I am--slowly, hesitantly, and unwillingly--coming to the conclusion that I have to mark my beliefs about the process of economic technological… More >

Department of “Huh?!” John J. Mearsheimer Thinks the West Caused the Ukraine Crisis?: The Honest Broker for the Week of September 19, 2014

John Mearsheimer is only one of a surprising number claiming that the current crisis in Ukraine is predominantly the U.S.'s, and NATO's, and the Ukraine's fault: John Mearsheimer: How the West Caused the Ukraine Crisis: Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault: "The United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility...… More >

“Trapped in the ‘Dark Corners’”?: Thoughts on Olivier Blanchard’s “Where Danger Lurks”: The Honest Broker for the Week of September 12, 2014

Olivier Blanchard, inveighing against "ergodicity" and "linearity" as assumptions, sounds like some post-Keynesian from the 1980s. They were right then. He is right now: Olivier Blanchard: Where Danger Lurks: "One has to go back to the so-called rational expectations revolution... ...What was new was the development of techniques to solve models under the assumption that… More >

The Taper, Nick Rowe, Quantitative Easing, and Intellectual Coordination Failures: Wednesday Focus for August 27, 2014

Nick Rowe begs for North Atlantic central banks to do what he (and I) regard as their proper job, and writes: Nick Rowe: Money, Prices, and Coordination Failures "The more interesting cases are... ...where a non-monetary coordination failure has spillover effects, and causes a monetary coordination failure. A worsening of asymmetric information problems in financial… More >

Under What Circumstances Should You Worry That the Stock Market Is “too High”?: The Honest Broker for the Week of August 16, 2014

Robert Shiller: The Mystery of Lofty Stock Market Elevations "The CAPE ratio, a stock-price measure I helped develop... ...is hovering at a worrisome level.... Above 25, a level that has been surpassed... in only... the years clustered around 1929, 1999 and 2007. Major market drops followed those peaks.... We should recognize that we are in… More >

Monetarist, Keynesian, and Minskyite Depressions Once Again: Yes, Lloyd Metzler Was the Greatest Chicago Macroeconomist Ever: The Honest Broker for the Week of July 19, 2014

I have said this before. But I seem to need to say it again... The very intelligent and thoughtful David Beckworth, Simon Wren-Lewis, and Nick Rowe are agreeing on New Keynesian-Market Monetarist monetary-fiscal convergence. Underpinning all of their analyses there seems to me to be the assumption that all aggregate demand shortfalls spring from the… More >

Over at Writers with Drinks: Oversharing About Money: An International Financial Wire Transfer from Lafayette, California, USA to Ahero, Nyando District, Nyanza Province, Kenya: Monday Focus for July 14, 2014/The Honest Broker

Writers with Drinks: An Evening of Oversharing About Money: 7:30 p.m. July 12 :: Make-Out Room :: 3225 22nd St. San Francisco, CA :: Price: $5-$20 http://writerswithdrinks.com: "If time is money, then consider this evening with Charlie Jane Anders, J. Bradford DeLong, Frances Lefkowitz, Farhad Manjoo, and Carol Queen to be a good investment..." Oversharing… More >