Morning Must-Read: Murat Tasci and Jessica Ice: Reassessing the Beveridge Curve “Shift” Four Years Later

Reassessing the Beveridge Curve Shift Four Years Later Murat Tasci and Jessica Ice Economic Trends 09 05 14 Federal Reserve Bank of ClevelandMurat Tasci and Jessica Ice: Reassessing the Beveridge Curve “Shift” Four Years Later: “Early on in the current recovery…

…economists and policymakers were worried about a potential shift in the Beveridge curve…. Job vacancies were rising, but the unemployment rate was not declining, fueling a debate about a structural problem in the labor markets. Exactly four years ago, we… argued that it was too early to call what had happened a shift…. We concluded that the Beveridge curve behavior we were seeing in this recovery was typical of recoveries in general, and that the curve would likely follow its historical business-cycle pattern going forward, erasing any evidence of a shift. Well, four years later, we have 16 more quarterly data points to inform us…. It is safe to say that what seemed like a shift in the Beveridge curve ended up being another manifestation of the ‘normal’ dynamics of unemployment and vacancies in the United States…

September 5, 2014

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