Should-Read: Shawn Donnan: Trump is about to launch a trade war with no way out: “Business chiefs have pleaded for the Trump administration not to impose tariffs on electronics, shoes and other imports from China that go far beyond the steel and aluminium he has already targeted…

…Mr Trump, however, is considering doing exactly that… accuse China of forcing the transfer of technology worth $30bn a year from US companies trying to do business in China… new tariffs on Chinese imports worth $60bn a year… restrictions on investment from China and possibly even new limits on visas for Chinese nationals. But is the Trump administration prepared to engage in the difficult negotiations with Beijing to tackle the underlying issues? And if it goes to war what is its real goal? Mr Trump has talked about reducing the $375bn annual trade deficit with China and asked for a $100bn reduction plan from Beijing. He and others in his administration have also talked about bringing factories home to the US. His focus is largely domestic in other words. But for US businesses the true gains would come from real change in China’s IP regime, investment rules, and other regulations…. Extracting such concessions would take hard negotiating. But Mr Trump’s team has repeatedly signalled that they are tired of talking…

March 22, 2018

AUTHORS:

Brad DeLong
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