Should-Read: Barry Eichengreen: Hyperglobalization Is Over, But Globalization Is Still with Us
Should-Read: Barry Eichengreen: Hyperglobalization Is Over, But Globalization Is Still with Us: “Hyperglobalization is over… international trade… growing faster than the world economy… has drawn to a close… https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1JfrUS5WO79UD/9e9d7589-d888-4435-98fc-4792ff141323.pdf
…The era when cross-border financial flows were growing faster than the world economy has drawn to a close as well. And the era when international migration was growing faster than the world economy is probably over too. Trade is slowing because Chinese growth has slowed down from 10% to 6% or so, and its export growth has slowed down commensurately. And global supply chains cannot be made more and more elaborate forever. Cross-border financial flows are no longer growing faster than everything else because regulators have wisely cracked down on cross-border bank lending…. But I see no reason in principle why trade and GDP cannot now expand in tandem…. And I see no reason why financial flows cannot grow in tandem….
Hyperglobalization may be over, but globalization is still with us. US business is deeply invested in globalization and would push back hard against anything the Trump administration did that seriously jeopardized NAFTA or globalization more broadly. And other parts of the world remain committed to openness, even if they are concerned about managing openness in a way that benefits everyone and limits stability risks that openness creates…