With a First-Quarter-of-2015 Projected Real GDP Growth Rate of 1.3%/Year…
…the U.S. economy will have grown at a rate of:
- 2.8%/year over the past four quarters.
- 2.5%/year over the past eight quarters.
- 2.2%/year over the past twelve quarters.
If you think that the growth rate of potential output post-2009 is 2.2%/year, we are in exactly the same position relative to potential output that we were in March of 2012. And thus monetary and fiscal policy looking forward should be the same now as they should have been in March of 2012.
And if you think that the growth rate of potential output post-2009 has been less than 2.2%/year, you need to explain why–and you need to explain why it has not been due to low-pressure-economy policies, and why given that high-pressure economy policies right now are not a no-brainer.