Evening Must-Read: Robert Kopp et al.: American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks in the United States

Robert Kopp et al.: American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks in the United States: “Uncertainty in the equilibrium climate sensitivity…

…is a major contributor to overall uncertainty in projections of future climate change and its potential impacts. Scientists have high confidence, based on observed climate change, climate models, feedback analysis, and paleoclimate evidence that the long-term climate sensitivity (over hundreds to thousands of years) is likely in the range of 3°F to 8°F warming per CO2 doubling, extremely likely (95% probability) greater than 2°F, and very likely (90% probability) less than 11°F (Collins et al. 2013). This warming is not realized instantaneously, as the ocean serves as a heat sink, slowing temperature rise. A more immediate measure, the “transient climate response,” indicates that a doubling of CO2 over 70 years is likely to cause a warming of between 2°F and 5°F over that period of time (Collins et al. 2013)…