Should-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: First Stage Reality and Brexiters

Should-Read: So it turns out that “Brexit means Brexit” means: The United Kingdom loses its voice in Brussels, but for all other intents and purposes remains part of the EU. Who knew that this was the hill Boris Johnson and Teresa May wanted to die on? It may still be a political winner: May and Johnson and company will use “we are no longer part of the EU” to get their constituencies to look down on continental Europeans. But the U.S. southern Democratic Party got its constituency to look down on Negroes so that the constituency’s pockets could be picked—it made cruel, sadistic, and pragmatic sense. There is no pragmatic sense here: Simon Wren-Lewis: First Stage Reality and Brexiters… see… the important facts… and… apply them relentlessly despite what politicians say…

…A Single Market and Customs Union needs a border…. to comply with all the tariffs, standards and regulations of the Single Market. The UK has now agreed, as I thought it would, that this must also apply to the UK as a whole…. After Brexit, the UK will to the first approximation continue to obey all the rules of the Single Market and Customs Union… as if we are still in the EU… [but] we no longer have any say on what those rules are….

But, you may respond, all the UK have signed up to is that this is a default position, if they fail to find a technological fix for the border, or if they fail to conclude a trade agreement with the EU in stage 2, and what does “alignment” mean anyway?… We also know… the UK desperately want a trade agreement with the EU and the EU will not allow any agreement that implies a hard border in Ireland….

Why then are the Brexiters not up in arms?… Partly because the agreement plays on their lack of realism…. Why is it important that this deceit continues? Because if everyone was honest, and respected the reality of the border issue, people would rightly ask whether our final destination (obeying the rules but with no say on the rules) is worth having. They would note that being to all intents and purposes part of the Customs Union means Mr. Fox cannot make new trade agreements. People might start asking MPs why are we doing this, and the line that we have to do this because the people voted for it would sound increasingly dumb….

[If] we… end up with the softest of soft Brexits…] there is a huge irony…. The Brexiters’ dream was to rid the UK of the shackles of the EU so it could become great again, but it is a legacy of empire that has brought this dream to an end…. Instead we will still be acting under the rules of the EU, but because we are not part of it the UK will be largely ignored…