Morning Must-Read: Duncan Weldon: What Happens When US Rates Rise?

1994… markets had not fully ‘priced in’ the extent to which the Fed was planning on raising rates. As the scale and pace of the tightening became apparent, bond rapidly repriced with the price falling and the yield rising. Long term interest rates rose sharply…. 1999 to 2000… ‘textbook’…. As short term rates rose, so did the 10 year yield… [which] ran slightly ahead of Fed Funds…. 2004 to 2006…. Despite the Fed raising rates from just 1.0% to 5.25%, longer term interest rates barely budged… a ‘conundrum’…. The big factor at work was foreign buying of USTs. Rising foreign demand (especially from foreign central banks that wanted to control the value of their currencies against the US dollar)…. So–what to expect in 2015 and beyond?…