What Will (Probably) Happen? What the Federal Reserve thinks: that the U.S. economy is near full employment… that U.S. potential-output growth rate is 2%/year… that it should be “normalizing” interest rates… A positive shock to growth (or inflation) will see the Fed raise faster and further: Do not expect real growth much above 2%/year under … Continue reading Monetary Policy Outlook: The United States (Fall 2017)