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January 8, 2017
By Brad DeLong,

Should-Read: Pseudoerasmus: The Bairoch Conjecture on Tariffs and Growth

Should-Read: Manufacturing-centric industrial policy works (or worked) best when the hegemon of the world economy plays the role of the Importer of Last Resort. And only worked when there was a highly competent government–which raises the possibility that pretty much any other non-nonsensical development strategy would have worked as well… Pseudoerasmus: The Bairoch Conjecture on […]

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July 10, 2017
By Brad DeLong,

Should-Read: Gillian Tett: Donald Trump’s tariffs would do little for American workers

Should-Read: Gillian Tett: Donald Trump’s tariffs would do little for American workers: “Robots will be the real winners if US president goes ahead with curbs on steel imports… https://www.ft.com/content/cd7df564-5c15-11e7-b553-e2df1b0c3220 …Another week, another wave of sabre-rattling from the Trump administration over trade…. Now the focus is on steel…. Tariffs would hurt American-based companies in direct and […]

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April 19, 2018
By Brad DeLong,

Should-read: Alessandro Nicita, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Peri da Silva: A trade war will increase average tariffs by 32 percentage points

Alessandro Nicita, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Peri da Silva: [A trade war will increase average tariffs by 32 percentage points(https://voxeu.org/article/trade-war-will-increase-average-tariffs-32-percentage-points): “A trade war will increase average tariffs by 32 percentage points… …There are growing signs that a trade war is possible, and that the multilateral trading system may not be able to prevent it. This column […]

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April 20, 2018
By Brad DeLong,

Trump is making more things wrong with Kansas: Joshua Green: Chinese sorghum tariffs will hit hard in Trump-friendly Kansas

Eight years of Governor Sam Brownback has seen Kansas lose 8% of its jobs relative to the national average. Now Kansas is Ground Zero for Trump’s trade war. Joshua Green: Chinese Sorghum Tariffs Will Hit Hard in Trump-friendly Kansas: “Trump’s Trade War Hits Another Red State: What’s the matter with Kansas? It’ll be hardest hit […]

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April 18, 2018
By Brad DeLong,

Imposing tariffs on intermediate inputs is especially bad: Chad Brown: The element of surprise is a bad strategy for a trade war

It would seem that veryone serious except Peter Navarro, Robert Lighthizer, Larry Kudlow—and Donald Trump—knows that imposing tariffs on intermediate inputs is especially bad, especially destructive: Chad Brown: The Element of Surprise Is a Bad Strategy for a Trade War: “Trump’s decision to impose restrictions on intermediate inputs and capital equipment is a step backward… […]

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March 3, 2015

Afternoon Must-Read: Douglas Irwin: Tariff Incidence: Evidence from U.S. Sugar Duties, 1890-1930

Douglas A. Irwin: Tariff Incidence: Evidence from U.S. Sugar Duties, 1890-1930: “Direct empirical evidence on whether domestic consumers or foreign exporters bear the burden of a country’s import duties is scarce… …This paper examines the incidence of U.S. sugar duties using a unique set of high-frequency (weekly, and sometimes daily) data on the landed and […]

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January 22, 2017
By Brad DeLong,

Has Protectionism Ever Worked?

Q: Has protectionism ever worked? Are there examples of countries throughout history that have embraced protectionist policies, and did that yield positive results? And what do these examples, if there are any, tell us about the economic plans of Mr. Trump? A: If I were you, I would go grab Robert Allen’s Global Economic History: […]

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November 9, 2017
By Brad DeLong,

Must-Read: Barry Eichengreen: Trade Policy and Growth

Must-Read: Barry Eichengreen: Trade Policy and Growth: “Nothing one can say in this area is uncontroversial… …Prior to 1913… O’Rourke (2000)… estimated unconditional convergence equations, conditional convergence equations, and factor-accumulation models for a panel of ten countries and eight periods between 1874 and 1914, and concluded from all three approaches that tariffs were positively associated […]

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May 8, 2018
By Brad DeLong,

National Taxpayers Union: More Than 1,100 Economists Join NTU to Voice Opposition to Tariffs, Protectionism

National Taxpayers Union: More Than 1,100 Economists Join NTU to Voice Opposition to Tariffs, Protectionism: “The lowering of trade barriers between nations has been one of the great achievements of the global economic system in the postwar era… …Trade agreements have enriched economies around the world and allowed people access to goods that would have […]