Must-Read: Five Thoughts on Brexit::
- British politics now has a big dose of Syriza thinking. ‘Respect our democratic mandate’ doesn’t work when you’re dealing with 27 other democratically elected governments.
- I have no idea what the final settlement looks like. No one does.
- We won’t get any clarity in the next few months. The Tory leadership contest will at best give a small signal, but really it’s noise. The next PM will be selected by a membership of leave supporters and the candidates will pitch to that. All will offer a fantasy that the EU is unlikely to agree to.
- British politics is in flux. The next Tory leader faces having to make a tough choice: disappoint the membership and traditional Tory voters or lose the City. The broad coalition of social conservatives and economic liberals that form the party may not be able to survive this choice. Labour faces similar pressures. Handled badly, this go see a UKIP surge – not into power but into a much stronger position in Parliament.
- Finally – I think the UK’s actions will ultimately be good for EU unity. Others will be less inclined to follow our example if it is painful (and that’s without the additional problems of leaving Schengen or the euro). It isn’t hard to imagine the Eurozone doubling down now and building the kind of institutions that the zone needs to work.