Morning Must-Read: Daniel Drezner: Five Known Unknowns About the Future of the Global Economy

…about the future of the global economy…. 1) The Summers/Gordon Question…. What if the elevated rates of economic growth that started with the Industrial Revolution are now petering out in the developed world? What if all the low-hanging fruit that have kept growth high for the last two centuries have been exhausted? 2) The Eichengreen/Rodrik Question. The default assumption that most economists make is that the developing world in general, and the BRICS in particular, will converge towards the affluence level of the developed world. This might not be the case… there is a very real ‘middle income trap’ that can lead to a serious growth slowdown in the advanced developing countries. Even more disturbing is Dani Rodrik’s contention that while globalization has led to a true convergence in manufacturing productivity, it hasn’t caused any convergence in the rest…. 3) The Angell/Gartzke Question…. What if geopolitical tensions force a re-ordering of economic ties? This could erode the pacifying effects of commercial liberalism that scholars from Norman Angell to Erik Gartzke have observed…. 4) The Fukuyama/Kirshner Question…. Jonathan Kirshner’s new book… argu[es] that China and others are now rejecting the U.S. financial model. If Kirshner is right, what will this mean for the future of economic growth? More radically, what if other countries reject the capitalist model wholesale?…. 5) The Piketty/Freeland… argument… that, left to its own devices, capitalism will produce a dystopia where elites will grab an ever-growing share of the economic pie. What happens to the global economy if he’s right?  What kind of political backlash will it produce?…. Enjoy the week!