Lunchtime Must-Read: Gerard Roland and Yuriy Gorodnichenko: Putin’s Endgame

Gerard Roland and Yuriy Gorodnichenko: Putin’s endgame: “To Putin’s surprise, the Ukrainian government and army…

…have put up serious resistance to his earlier moves. The level of popular support for his people’s republics in the East has also been surprisingly low…. The possible outcomes: (1) Ukraine continues fighting without any material help from the West…. (2) Ukraine continues fighting, the West radically tightens economic sanctions and gives more economic help to Ukraine…. (3) Ukraine continues fighting, the West radically tightens economic sanctions, gives more economic help to Ukraine, and provides military help.

While Mr Putin has spent copious amounts of oil dollars to modernise the Russian army, it is no match for Western forces. Even if the West does not send troops to Ukraine and limits military support to supplies of weapons and intelligence, the Ukrainian forces will be able to have an upper hand in combat and it will be a matter of time before they retake the east of Ukraine…. It may take many thousands of lives on both sides before the war is over (scenario 1), or the war may end soon. The tally largely depends on the West’s policy response…. The West’s policy of appeasement has so far been utterly ineffective…