Tim Duy: Game On: “Bottom Line: The Fed’s confidence in the US economy is driving them closer to policy normalization…

…The labor market improvements are key – as long as unemployment is falling, confidence in the inflation outlook is rising. The more important message, however, is as the timing of the first rate hike draws closer, the level of uncertainty is rising. And it is not just about the timing of that rate hike. The Fed is sending a clear message that the subsequent path of rates is also very uncertain, and they don’t think that uncertainty is being taken seriously by market participants. In their view, financial markets are too complacent about the likely path of interest rates.