Afternoon Must-Read: Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor: The Great Mortgaging

Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor: The Great Mortgaging: “In 17 advanced economies since 1870….

…(1) Mortgage lending was 1/3 of bank balance sheets about 100 years ago, but in the postwar era mortgage lending has now risen to 2/3, and rapidly so in recent decades. (2) Credit buildup is predictive of financial crisis events, but in the postwar era it is mortgage lending that is the strongest predictor of this outcome. (3) Credit buildup in expansions is predictive of deeper recessions, but in the postwar era it is mortgage lending that is the strongest predictor of this outcome as well…

There are well-known benefits to getting people ownership of their houses. As Larry Summers always says: “nobody ever changed the oil in a rental car”. And standard mortgages are one hell of a forced-savings program, and thus one hell of a counterbalance to behavioral financial myopia. But with investments in housing the illusion that the wealth committed is in some sense truly liquid–the illusion modern financial markets are designed to create–is the most illusionary…

October 13, 2014

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