Note to Self: On the Tracks of the “Confidence Fairy”…

Today’s Economic History: The phrase “confidence fairy” does not appear in Google Ngrams. However, “business confidence” does:

The first modern use of “confidence fairy” I can find in google is Paul Krugman’s, on July 1, 2010:

• Paul Krugman (2010): Myths of Austerity

With google reporting the second person to mention it as Joe Stiglitz in October:

• Joseph Stiglitz (2010): To choose austerity is to bet it all on the confidence fairy

Among the approximately 18,400 mentions of the phrase, google (anonymized) reports the most salient pieces of the conversation thereby started are:

1. Robert Skidelsky (2015): Debating the Confidence Fairy
2. Paul Krugman (2014): The Zombie Confidence Fairy
3. Paul Krugman (2013): The Confidence Fairy, The Expectations Imp, and the Rate-Hike Obsession – The New York Times
4. Paul Krugman (2012): Expectations and the Confidence Fairy

With a notable contribution earlier that does not use the phrase “confidence fairy” being:

• Laurence Ball and N. Gregory Mankiw (1995): What Do Budget Deficits Do?

And with the first occurrence of the idea I can find–“if confidence could return, touch all industries with her magic wand…” is in:

• Alfred Marshall and Mary Paley Marshall (1885): The Economics of Industry