Chilean Politics, “Neoliberalismo”, Once-And-Future President Michelle Bachelet, “Seeing Like a State”, the Really-Existing Socialist and Neoliberal Projects of the Twentieth Century, and the Electoral Victory of Her New Majority Coalition: The Honest Broker for the Week of November 24, 2013

[Attention Conservation Notice: Harley Shaiken at the Berkeley Center for Latin American Studies asked me if I could write a short comment on a piece he was running by Javier Couso about Chilean politics, “neoliberalismo”, once-and-future President Michelle Bachelet, and the electoral victory of her New Majority Coalition–Couso being one of the co-authors of the currently highly influential El Otro Modelo: Del Orden Neoliberal al Regimen de lo Publico. The piece got out of control, and is not a success…

But if you are interested in my not-very-well-connected thoughts on Chilean politics, “neoliberalismo”, once-and-future President Michelle Bachelet, Seeing Like a *State the really-existing socialist and neoliberal projects of the twentieth century, and the electoral victory of her New Majority Coalition, they are below the fold…

Continue reading “Chilean Politics, “Neoliberalismo”, Once-And-Future President Michelle Bachelet, “Seeing Like a State”, the Really-Existing Socialist and Neoliberal Projects of the Twentieth Century, and the Electoral Victory of Her New Majority Coalition: The Honest Broker for the Week of November 24, 2013″

Things to Read at Lunchtime on November 30, 2013

Must-Reads:

  1. Evan Soltas: “U1 through U6 don’t collapse to one single measure of unemployment… [but] to… two dimensions… the narrow side and… the farther-out reaches of unemployment…. Narrower definitions of unemployment are improving more quickly than wider definitions of unemployment… labor markets are probably looser than the normal measures suggest… underemployment [is] a real, serious concern…”

  2. Jonathan Bernstein: The minimum wage and the post-policy GOP: “When both parties are healthy… popular, high-priority policy preferences of one party are bundled with the popular, high-priority policy preferences of the other. However, what exactly do Republicans have[?]… The Republican policy cupboard is pretty much empty…. It’s not clear that Republicans would accept any deal, given their paranoia about primary challenges based on accepting any kind of accommodation with the Kenyan socialist in the White House… conservatives are rejecting getting some of their priorities passed if it means accepting anything that Democrats want…. This just isn’t how the American political system is supposed to work. There really is an opportunity here for a deal that could enact popular policy ideas from both sides. But thanks to a dysfunctional Republican Party, it’s very hard to see it happening.”

Should-Reads:

  1. Francesco Saraceno: What is Mainstream Economics?: “Paul Krugman and Simon Wren-Lewis have been widely criticized… as defending ‘mainstream’ economics that spectacularly failed…. Krugman has a point, a very good one, when claiming that standard textbook analysis is (almost) all you need to understand the current crisis…. The point is what we define as ‘textbook analysis’. Krugman refers to IS-LM models. But these… disappeared from graduate curricula because supposedly too simplistic, not grounded on optimization, not intertemporal, and so on and so forth…. They were nowhere to be found during my graduate studies at Columbia (certainly not a freshwater school). None of the macro I studied in graduate school (Real Business Cycle models, or their fixed-price variant proposed by New Keynesians)… could give me insight…. The IS-LM model with minor amendments (most notably properly accounting for expectations to deal among other things with liquidity traps) remains a powerful tool to understand current phenomena. The problem is that it is not mainstream at all. What bothers me in Krugman’s post is the word ‘standard’, not ‘textbook analysis’.”

  2. Charlie Stross: Trotskyite singularitarians for Monarchism! A political speculation: “The 20th century spanned the collapse of the Monarchical System, the rise and fall of Actually Existing Socialism, a bunch of unpleasant failed experiments in pyramid building using human skulls, and the ascent to supremacy of Neoliberalism and the Washington Consensus. In 2007/08, the system malfunctioned spectacularly: it’s clearly unstable and has huge problems, but what’s going to replace it?… Neo-reactionaries… are effectively libertarians who have thrown up their hands in disgust.. and the appropriate political solution to the problem is to go back to aristocracy… Geeks for Monarchy…. We have Accelerationism… the notion that rather than halting the onslaught of capital, it is best to exacerbate its processes to bring forth its inner contradictions and thereby hasten its destruction…. Despair is a common reaction to defeat, as is Stockholm syndrome…. Libertarians… assumed [neoliberalism] would bring about the small government/small world goals…. As it becomes clear that the fruits of neoliberalism are instability and corporate parasitism rather than liberty and justice for all–is it unreasonable of them to look to an earlier, superficially simpler settlement?”

Should Be Aware of:

  1. Mark Kleiman: Against Symmetry: Republicans-love-being-lied-to Edition: “>Liberals felt sorry for Dan Rather for having used… fabricated documents in reporting on George W. Bush’s derelictions of duty…. But… no liberal blogger–let alone any liberal politician–called Rather a ‘hero’…. Contrast Mike Huckabee, who… might actually be President some day. He’s ‘shocked’ that the ‘hero journalist’ Lara Logan has been suspended from her job at CBS. It’s simply not the case that the Red Team and the Blue Team are symmetric. Yes, they both act factionally, and both camps include some lunatics. But we don’t let ours run the asylum…”

Barry Ritholtz: “No, David Rosenberg’s Bullishness Was Not ‘Purchased for $3M’: I was going to write a long point-by-point rebuttal to a Zero Hedge post about David Rosenberg that is factually erroneous, biased, defamatory and just plain wrong; instead, I will offer my correction” | Franklin Fisher: The Stability of General Equilibrium | Franklin Fisher: Disequilibrium Foundations of Equilibrium Economics | Firat Kayakiran & Thomas Biesheuvel: Zeppelins Seen Hauling Caterpillars to Mine Siberia: Commodities | Henry Blodget: Rich People Actually Don’t Create The Jobs |

Duncan Black Marvels at Charles Krauthammer

Duncan Black remembers Charles Krauthammer (2005):

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist seems intent on passing a procedural ruling to prevent judicial filibusters…. The Democrats have unilaterally shattered one of the longest-running traditions in parliamentary history worldwide. They are not to be rewarded with a deal. They must either stop or be stopped by a simple change of Senate procedure that would do nothing more than take a 200-year-old unwritten rule and make it written. What the Democrats have done is radical. What Frist is proposing is a restoration…

And Charles Krauthammer (2013):

The violence to political norms here consisted in how that change was executed. By brute force–a near party-line vote of 52 to 48. This was a disgraceful violation of more than two centuries of precedent. If a bare majority can change the fundamental rules that govern an institution, then there are no rules. Senate rules today are whatever the majority decides they are that morning…

Continue reading “Duncan Black Marvels at Charles Krauthammer”

Understanding the Stability of General Equilibrium as a Requirement for Getting a Union Card as an Economist: Friday Focus

The problem of economists not understanding what the equilibrium positions of their models mean is a serious one. So, in my mind at least, it is worth a Focus. Unfortunately, it is also a problem that is only understandable and of interest to perhaps 1/50 of the readers of this weblog. To deal with this quandary, I am making it the focus on the day after Thanksgiving, when people should be frantically reading turkey-leftover recipes, like:

Diana Rattray: Leftover Turkey Recipes: “Leftover Turkey Pie… Turkey Quiche With Peppers and Green Onions​… Turkey Empanadas… Cajun Turkey Jambalaya… Turkey Curry… Creamy Turkey With Artichokes… Turkey Divan Recipe… Hot Turkey Sandwich… Turkey and Mashed Potato Croquettes… Basic Turkey Stock… Turkey Broccoli Quiche… Creamy Turkey Pie With Biscuit Mix Topping… Turkey, Ham, and Swiss Casserole
Turkey Salad With Red Grapes… Turkey Pasta Casserole With Asparagus and Cheddar Cheese… Turkey and Rice Bake… Savory Turkey Cobbler… Curried Turkey Salad with Cranberries… Kentucky-Style Hot Brown Sandwiches… Turkey Supreme… Turkey Pie With Mushrooms… Turkey, Cheese, and Pasta Wheels… Turkey and Stuffing Bake… Turkey Casserole With Havarti Cheese
Turkey Macaroni Casserole… Turkey Rice Casserole With Curry Powder… Turkey a la King… Turkey Bake with Asparagus… Scalloped Turkey or Chicken… Hot Brown Sandwiches… Turkey Rice Bake… Cheddar Turkey and Rice Casserole… Easy Turkey Sandwich Melt… Open-Face Turkey Sandwiches with Cheese Sauce… Slow Cooker Turkey and Rice… Turkey Pot Pie… Turkey Pot Pie with Cornbread Topping… Turkey, Stuffing, and Broccoli Pie… Turkey Tetrazzini… Turkey Noodle Casserole… Turkey Croquettes… Roasted Turkey Broth… Louisville Creamed Turkey… Curried Turkey Salad… Crockpot Corn Pudding With Turkey… Turkey Divan Soup… Family Style Turkey pie… Easy Turkey & Rice Casserole IV… Turkey Enchiladas… Turkey Hash Recipe…”

And we now resume our normal programming:

I think that the solution is to make every economist pass an exam on Franklin Fisher’s “The Stability of General Equilibrium” and Disequilibrium Foundations of Equilibrium Economics. But that is just me. The problem is urgent. For example, it appears to have led Nick Rowe into a situation in which he appears to be in need of having his meds adjusted:

Nick Rowe: Why inflation will not fall off a bottomless cliff:

Continue reading “Understanding the Stability of General Equilibrium as a Requirement for Getting a Union Card as an Economist: Friday Focus”

Things to Read on the Morning of November 29, 2013

Must-Reads:

Over at the WCEG Equitablog:

Plus:

  1. Diana Rattray: Leftover Turkey Recipes: “Leftover Turkey Pie… Turkey Quiche With Peppers and Green Onions​… Turkey Empanadas… Cajun Turkey Jambalaya… Turkey Curry… Creamy Turkey With Artichokes… Turkey Divan Recipe… Hot Turkey Sandwich… Turkey and Mashed Potato Croquettes… Basic Turkey Stock… Turkey Broccoli Quiche… Creamy Turkey Pie With Biscuit Mix Topping… Turkey, Ham, and Swiss Casserole
    Turkey Salad With Red Grapes… Turkey Pasta Casserole With Asparagus and Cheddar Cheese… Turkey and Rice Bake… Savory Turkey Cobbler… Curried Turkey Salad with Cranberries… Kentucky-Style Hot Brown Sandwiches… Turkey Supreme… Turkey Pie With Mushrooms… Turkey, Cheese, and Pasta Wheels… Turkey and Stuffing Bake… Turkey Casserole With Havarti Cheese
    Turkey Macaroni Casserole… Turkey Rice Casserole With Curry Powder… Turkey a la King… Turkey Bake with Asparagus… Scalloped Turkey or Chicken… Hot Brown Sandwiches… Turkey Rice Bake… Cheddar Turkey and Rice Casserole… Easy Turkey Sandwich Melt… Open-Face Turkey Sandwiches with Cheese Sauce… Slow Cooker Turkey and Rice… Turkey Pot Pie… Turkey Pot Pie with Cornbread Topping… Turkey, Stuffing, and Broccoli Pie… Turkey Tetrazzini… Turkey Noodle Casserole… Turkey Croquettes… Roasted Turkey Broth… Louisville Creamed Turkey… Curried Turkey Salad… Crockpot Corn Pudding With Turkey… Turkey Divan Soup… Family Style Turkey pie… Easy Turkey & Rice Casserole IV… Turkey Enchiladas… Turkey Hash Recipe…”

  2. Josh Marshall: A Realist’s Take on Obamacare: “Here’s why I think the… law will be a success. Much of what I’m going to say below is based on worst case scenarios, most of which I don’t think will materialize…. I base this relative optimism on four assumptions. The first is legislative… this law will not undergo substantive changes before January 2017… Obama has complete control over this part of the equation…. This is a cardinal fact. Second and under-appreciated: the major national insurance carriers have heavily bought into the “Obamacare”/exchange model…. Third: By early next year you will have millions of new people enrolled in Medicaid, large numbers of people who have health care covered who couldn’t get it at any reasonable price before… and you will have large numbers of people who have care that is better or cheaper and often both…. It’s one thing to have millions of uninsured or people boxed out because of pre-existing conditions. But once they have affordable coverage, I don’t think you’re going to be able to take it back. Fourth… I think Obamacare is good policy…. Now, one response… goes something like this: Sure, most of the uninsured will get covered and people will preexisting will be protected and you won’t be able to be dropped if you get sick but it’s just going to be an endless PR nightmare and the Dems will be paying for it in 2014 and 2016 and maybe 2018 and it may ‘work’ but never be popular…. But here is where the question comes to the prism and the standard of success. We didn’t pass Health Care Reform for it to reap electoral gains for Democrats (though I think it still will) or to have it be popular…. The aim was to get people covered… reduce the scale of human suffering… tied to your wealth and your luck. By that standard, I think it will be a success and I think there will be no going back. And that’s the only standard that matters.”

  3. Nicole Huberfeld: Medicaid is expanding faster than you may think: “[The Supreme Court ruling that made the Medicaid expansion a state option] led to constant speculation regarding which states would exercise the ability to opt-in or opt-out of Medicaid…. Though the media have reported that only half of states are participating, of the remaining states categorized as not participating or leaning toward not participating, all but about six are actively debating and planning to expand. The future of Medicaid expansion is not nearly as bleak as the media suggests… beginning to expose an animated set of political choices at both the state and the federal level that feed a dynamic federalism story that has so far evaded the Court’s understanding. The story of the Medicaid expansion is just beginning… but the preliminary enquiry indicates strong prospects…”

Should-Reads:

Continue reading “Things to Read on the Morning of November 29, 2013”

Not My Great^(11) Grandfather William Bradford’s Thanksgiving: Thursday Focus

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How much Grand Marnier is it proper to add to the cranberry sauce?

Agreement Between the Settlers at New Plymouth : 1620

IN THE NAME OF GOD, AMEN. We, whose names are underwritten, the Loyal Subjects of our dread Sovereign Lord King James, by the Grace of God, of Great Britain, France, and Ireland, King, Defender of the Faith, &c. Having undertaken for the Glory of God, and Advancement of the Christian Faith, and the Honour of our King and Country, a Voyage to plant the first Colony in the northern Parts of Virginia; Do by these Presents, solemnly and mutually, in the Presence of God and one another, covenant and combine ourselves together into a civil Body Politick, for our better Ordering and Preservation, and Furtherance of the Ends aforesaid: And by Virtue hereof do enact, constitute, and frame, such just and equal Laws, Ordinances, Acts, Constitutions, and Officers, from time to time, as shall be thought most meet and convenient for the general Good of the Colony; unto which we promise all due Submission and Obedience. IN WITNESS whereof we have hereunto subscribed our names at Cape-Cod the eleventh of November, in the Reign of our Sovereign Lord King James, of England, France, and Ireland, the eighteenth, and of Scotland the fifty-fourth, Anno Domini; 1620.

Mr. John Carver,
Mr. William Bradford,
Mr Edward Winslow,
Mr. William Brewster,
Isaac Allerton,
Myles Standish,
John Alden,
John Turner,
Francis Eaton,
James Chilton,
John Craxton,
John Billington,
Joses Fletcher,
John Goodman,
Mr. Samuel Fuller,
Mr. Christopher Martin,
Mr. William Mullins,
Mr. William White,
Mr. Richard Warren,
John Howland,
Mr. Steven Hopkins,
Digery Priest,
Thomas Williams,
Gilbert Winslow,
Edmund Margesson,
Peter Brown,
Richard Britteridge,
George Soule,
Edward Tilly,
John Tilly,
Francis Cooke,
Thomas Rogers,
Thomas Tinker,
John Ridgdale,
Edward Fuller,
Richard Clark,
Richard Gardiner,
Mr. John Allerton,
Thomas English,
Edward Doten,
Edward Liester.

John Cassidy Explains That Those Parts of ObamaCare That Are “Liberal” Are Working Very Well

The sect of “neoliberalism” I belonged to (or thought I belonged to) believed not that wherever possible the private sector should be left to deliver goods and services, but rather that it often made sense for the government to incentivize the private sector to deliver the right goods and services to the right people and then stand back and let it do so. It often makes sense. But it often doesn’t: consider war, education, pensions, health insurance, research and development, and the spread of knowledge and information more generally.

But perhaps the lesson is that even though “neoliberalism” a la Charlie Peters and the Washington Monthly has an honorable history, it is time to let the term simply stand for BAD THINGS and thus send it off to the intellectual glue factory…

Other than that quibble, a nice piece by John Cassidy:

John Cassidy: Liberalism Will Survive Obamacare:

Continue reading “John Cassidy Explains That Those Parts of ObamaCare That Are “Liberal” Are Working Very Well”

A Longer Version of the Accusations Jacobo Timmerman Lays Before the Bar of History Regarding Gabriel Garcia Marquez and Fidel Castro

A footnote to: Deficiencies of Bureaucratic Planning: Reading Jacobo Timmerman on Gabriel Garcia Marquez on Fidel Castro…. Courtesy of Patrick Iber:

From Jacobo Timmerman (1990): Cuba: A Journey:

Gabriel García Márquez, of course, is uncensored [by Castro], except when he enthusiastically refers, as he often does, to perestroika. His famous dialogue with Mikhail Gorbachev at the Moscow Film Festival in 1987, transmitted by Soviet news agencies, was not published in the Cuban press. The Colombian writer is the man who can perhaps influence Fidel Castro most. He is El Comandante’s most important instrument of public relations on the international front.

Continue reading “A Longer Version of the Accusations Jacobo Timmerman Lays Before the Bar of History Regarding Gabriel Garcia Marquez and Fidel Castro”

How Much There Is There in Attempts to Ascribe Any Significant Component of Our Current Economic Distress to “Policy Uncertainty”?: Wednesday Focus

I have always thought that the idea that there is a lot of “there” there is, at best, unproven–and given the energy that has been devoted to trying to prove it, that the failure to connect the links is strong evidence that there is not much there there at all,

Thus one of the analytical points made about the past six years I have not understood is a focus on “policy uncertainty” a la Baker, Bloom, and Davis as a factor holding back the U.S. economy. Residential construction is 1.5%-points of GDP below its level the last time the U.S. was at full employment, government purchases its 2.5%-points below its peak level, business equipment investment is nearly at its peak level, and exports are 1.5%-points of GDP above their level at the last peak. Add these up and we get a 2.5%-point of GDP drag. Apply today’s standard multiplier and add on a little bit for depressed household wealth and we have explained the shortfall in real GDP relative to potential.

FRED Graph FRED St Louis Fed

Continue reading “How Much There Is There in Attempts to Ascribe Any Significant Component of Our Current Economic Distress to “Policy Uncertainty”?: Wednesday Focus”

Things to Read in the Afternoon on November 27, 2013

Must-Reads:

  1. Stan Collender: The 10 Reasons There Won’t Be A Grand Budget Bargain Until 2019: “1. Democrats won’t agree to the big changes in Social Security, Medicare and other mandatory programs that Republicans want without getting a substantial revenue increase. Republicans won’t agree to a revenue increase without big changes in Social Security, Medicare and other entitlements. 2. Republicans absolutely can’t and won’t increase taxes until after the 2016 presidential election…. 3. Because of the problem with raising taxes before 2016, changes in mandatory spending are on hold until after 2016 as well…. 4. Therefore, there will be no big budget deal for the next three years…. 5. That means that, if it happens at all, the serious work… won’t begin until early 2017. 6. As the effort in the 1980s showed, tax reform is difficult and lengthy process…. 7. It also means that most members of Congress will have to express their dissatisfaction…. 8. The 1985 tax reform act took three years to enact. It was relatively easy from a budget point of view because from the start the bill was going to be ‘revenue neutral’… 9. Before Republicans will even be able to start to negotiate with Democrats, there will have to be a GOP vs GOP debate…. 10. The tax reform debate from the 1980s also took place when there was no tea party wing of the GOP and no social media…. Given these 10, it’s hard to see (1) how a process that could produce a grand bargain could get under way before 2017, and (2) how it could take less time than than it did in the 1980s.”

  2. Kevin Drum: Janet Yellen Is Now a Litmus Test for Right-Wing Sanity: “Steve Benen notes that the increasingly shrill and hyperbolic Heritage Foundation has decided to make opposition to Janet Yellen a ‘key vote’. That is, they’ll count it on their end-of-the-year scorecard that tells everyone just how conservative you are…. ‘It now seems likely that most Senate Republicans will oppose the most qualified Fed nominee since the institution was founded.’ That’s true, which means this has become sort of a litmus test for wingnuttery. There’s simply no serious reason to oppose Yellen, who is outstandingly qualified to be Fed chair by virtually any measure. So opposition to Yellen is now a pretty simple proposition: you oppose her if you’re some kind of hard money lunatic or if you feel like you have to pander to the hard money lunatics. That’s it. Everyone else votes to support her confirmation. Should be an interesting roll call…”

Should-Reads:

  1. Daniel Strauss: McConnell Challenger: Mitch Is Working ‘Actively’ To Make Sure Obamacare Is ‘Not Ended’: “Kentucky Republican Matt Bevin accused Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)… of ‘working actively’ to make sure Obamacare is not repealed. ‘We wanted to just call attention to frankly what we’re seeing as a rather disturbing trend which is the fact that we’ve thought for some time that most of Mitch McConnell’s bluster about yanking out Obamacare root and branch was really just that. But we’re seeing yet again the fact that behind the scenes and now with increasing amounts of overtness he’s really working actively to ensure that this is not a piece of legislation that is ended’. Bevin’s comments are in response to a report saying McConnell suggested he is not averse to discussing changes of the health care law. McConnell is quoted in that report saying that the law ‘was so botched from the beginning, that it’s not fixable’. Bevin said that despite McConnell saying that the law has been botched, the fact that he suggested some level of openness to changing the law shows that he does not totally want to repeal Obamacare.”

  2. Ezra Klein: Obamacare is a Done Deal: “A spin through HealthCare.Gov this morning went smoothly. The site loaded quickly. The process progressed easily. There were no error messages or endless hangs…. My experience isn’t rare…. Reports from inside the health care bureaucracy are also turning towards optimism…. A political system that’s become overwhelmingly oriented towards pessimism on Obamacare will have to adjust as the system’s technological infrastructure improves.’ I think the best translation of that last sentence is, ‘Republicans will soon have to find something else to gripe about”

  3. Kevin Drum: Obamacare is a Done Deal: Conservatives have always known that once Obamacare is up and running, it will become a popular program…. In a few months, it will be nearly as enshrined in the American social welfare firmament as Social Security and Medicare. Republicans have run out of time, and they know it. Their fixation on Obamacare already looks sort of balmy–this weekend’s deal with Iran was designed to draw attention away from Obamacare? Seriously?–and it’s only going to look loopier as time goes by. Getting Obamacare to the end zone wasn’t easy, and Obama almost fumbled the ball at the one-yard line, but he’s finally won…”

Should Be Aware of:

Burkhard Bilger: Inside Google’s Driverless Car | Ryan Avent: Monetary policy: Low rates forever | Jeff Spross: Rapid Plankton Decline Puts The Ocean’s Food Web In Peril | ProGrowthLiberal: Dean Baker v. Greg Mankiw on Wage Inflation: I may have been too nice to Greg Mankiw… | David Keohane: Let a hundred moles be whacked | Unofficial Transcript of Larry Summers’s Speech at the IMF Economic Forum, Nov. 8, 2013 | Lawrence Summers: Edited Transcript: IMF Fourteenth Annual Research Conference in Honor of Stanley Fischer |